Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Porcupine Ck at Mt Emu Plains


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Product list for Porcupine Ck at Mt Emu Plains



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Exceedance probability for Porcupine Ck at Mt Emu Plains ( Mar 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1012.282
208.714
306.364
404.156
502.268
600.729
700.184
800.035
900.003

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
121.265
218.409
317.287
416.362
515.676
614.718
714.041
813.405
912.765
1012.282
1111.878
1211.428
1311.085
1410.738
1510.353
1610.045
179.683
189.309
198.978
208.714
218.457
228.169
237.965
247.666
257.478
267.314
277.063
286.862
296.626
306.364
316.122
325.874
335.677
345.480
355.208
364.988
374.766
384.558
394.385
404.156
413.933
423.766
433.625
443.430
453.253
463.055
472.874
482.638
492.460
502.268
512.096
521.926
531.731
541.551
551.376
561.177
571.067
580.963
590.856
600.729
610.616
620.543
630.481
640.413
650.366
660.323
670.287
680.245
690.207
700.184
710.155
720.135
730.115
740.099
750.083
760.071
770.060
780.051
790.044
800.035
810.029
820.024
830.019
840.015
850.013
860.010
870.008
880.006
890.005
900.003
910.003
920.002
930.001
940.001
950.000
960.000
970.000
980.000
990.000


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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