Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Porcupine Ck at Mt Emu Plains


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Product list for Porcupine Ck at Mt Emu Plains


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Probability distribution for Porcupine Ck at Mt Emu Plains( Apr 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile0.003
Median0.045
Mean2.240
75% Quartile0.709
Interquartile Range0.707

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
132.441
224.172
320.925
418.253
516.273
613.525
711.606
89.839
98.128
106.902
115.941
124.959
134.279
143.661
153.058
162.636
172.204
181.827
191.543
201.348
211.180
221.017
230.915
240.783
250.709
260.651
270.571
280.514
290.454
300.396
310.349
320.306
330.276
340.249
350.216
360.192
370.171
380.153
390.140
400.124
410.110
420.101
430.094
440.084
450.077
460.069
470.062
480.055
490.050
500.045
510.040
520.036
530.032
540.029
550.025
560.022
570.020
580.018
590.017
600.015
610.013
620.011
630.010
640.009
650.008
660.008
670.007
680.006
690.005
700.005
710.004
720.004
730.003
740.003
750.003
760.002
770.002
780.002
790.001
800.001
810.001
820.001
830.001
840.000
850.000
860.000
870.000
880.000
890.000
900.000
910.000
920.000
930.000
940.000
950.000
960.000
970.000
980.000
990.000


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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