Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Porcupine Ck at Mt Emu Plains


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Product list for Porcupine Ck at Mt Emu Plains


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Probability distribution for Porcupine Ck at Mt Emu Plains(  )

Basic Statistics
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile1.215
Median5.486
Mean17.421
75% Quartile20.981
Interquartile Range19.766

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1129.801
2105.147
395.388
487.462
581.389
673.337
767.645
862.292
957.032
1053.126
1149.924
1246.451
1343.831
1441.219
1538.430
1636.288
1733.791
1831.331
1929.256
2027.677
2126.186
2224.516
2323.476
2421.915
2520.992
2620.209
2719.018
2818.111
2917.141
3016.070
3115.152
3214.225
3313.540
3412.916
3512.035
3611.393
3710.758
3810.202
399.749
409.184
418.658
428.290
437.979
447.577
457.228
466.841
476.520
486.104
495.797
505.486
515.214
524.955
534.650
544.388
554.110
563.818
573.645
583.474
593.299
603.067
612.859
622.711
632.575
642.419
652.300
662.182
672.075
681.941
691.809
701.717
711.597
721.504
731.400
741.310
751.214
761.133
771.047
780.971
790.901
800.813
810.735
820.664
830.587
840.526
850.476
860.411
870.348
880.300
890.246
900.189
910.140
920.086
930.033
940.000
950.000
960.000
970.000
980.000
990.000


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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