Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Porcupine Ck at Mt Emu Plains


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Product list for Porcupine Ck at Mt Emu Plains


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Probability distribution for Porcupine Ck at Mt Emu Plains(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile0.0020.000
Median0.0250.027
Mean0.2891.122
75% Quartile0.1350.323
Interquartile Range0.1330.323

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
15.02119.296
23.26313.563
32.26511.320
41.7849.470
51.3858.054
61.0696.330
70.8875.154
80.7234.140
90.6203.267
100.5352.695
110.4792.282
120.4391.893
130.4031.632
140.3581.390
150.3231.179
160.2871.032
170.2620.868
180.2390.737
190.2180.637
200.1980.567
210.1830.503
220.1690.437
230.1580.403
240.1460.352
250.1350.324
260.1270.300
270.1190.267
280.1100.243
290.1030.219
300.0970.194
310.0910.174
320.0840.155
330.0790.141
340.0730.129
350.0680.114
360.0640.103
370.0590.093
380.0550.084
390.0520.077
400.0500.069
410.0470.062
420.0440.058
430.0410.054
440.0380.049
450.0360.045
460.0330.041
470.0310.037
480.0290.033
490.0270.030
500.0250.027
510.0240.024
520.0220.022
530.0200.020
540.0190.018
550.0180.015
560.0160.013
570.0150.012
580.0140.011
590.0130.010
600.0120.008
610.0110.007
620.0100.006
630.0090.006
640.0080.005
650.0080.004
660.0070.004
670.0060.003
680.0060.002
690.0050.002
700.0050.002
710.0040.001
720.0030.001
730.0030.000
740.0020.000
750.0020.000
760.0010.000
770.0010.000
780.0010.000
790.0000.000
800.0000.000
810.0000.000
820.0000.000
830.0000.000
840.0000.000
850.0000.000
860.0000.000
870.0000.000
880.0000.000
890.0000.000
900.0000.000
910.0000.000
920.0000.000
930.0000.000
940.0000.000
950.0000.000
960.0000.000
970.0000.000
980.0000.000
990.0000.000


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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