Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Porcupine Ck at Mt Emu Plains


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Product list for Porcupine Ck at Mt Emu Plains


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Probability distribution for Porcupine Ck at Mt Emu Plains(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile0.0060.000
Median0.0330.015
Mean0.0880.057
75% Quartile0.0950.062
Interquartile Range0.0900.062

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10.8720.536
20.5840.432
30.4370.365
40.3810.318
50.3390.275
60.3090.246
70.2760.217
80.2490.194
90.2280.174
100.2110.161
110.1990.149
120.1860.139
130.1730.129
140.1620.119
150.1520.111
160.1450.104
170.1370.097
180.1310.091
190.1240.085
200.1180.080
210.1140.076
220.1080.072
230.1040.068
240.1000.065
250.0950.062
260.0900.060
270.0860.056
280.0830.054
290.0790.051
300.0750.048
310.0720.045
320.0690.043
330.0660.041
340.0630.039
350.0600.036
360.0580.034
370.0560.032
380.0540.030
390.0520.029
400.0490.027
410.0480.026
420.0460.024
430.0440.023
440.0420.022
450.0400.021
460.0380.019
470.0370.018
480.0360.017
490.0340.016
500.0330.015
510.0310.014
520.0300.013
530.0280.011
540.0280.010
550.0260.009
560.0250.008
570.0230.007
580.0220.007
590.0210.006
600.0200.005
610.0190.004
620.0170.003
630.0160.002
640.0150.002
650.0140.001
660.0130.001
670.0120.000
680.0110.000
690.0100.000
700.0090.000
710.0090.000
720.0080.000
730.0070.000
740.0060.000
750.0060.000
760.0050.000
770.0040.000
780.0030.000
790.0020.000
800.0020.000
810.0010.000
820.0000.000
830.0000.000
840.0000.000
850.0000.000
860.0000.000
870.0000.000
880.0000.000
890.0000.000
900.0000.000
910.0000.000
920.0000.000
930.0000.000
940.0000.000
950.0000.000
960.0000.000
970.0000.000
980.0000.000
990.0000.000


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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