Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Porcupine Ck at Mt Emu Plains


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Historical and exceedance probability for Porcupine Ck at Mt Emu Plains( Aug 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1972+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Minimum (2004) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1975) (GL)
Aug0.0200.0130.0000.0270.038
Aug-Sep0.0370.0170.0000.0360.043
Aug-Oct0.0540.0170.0000.0510.493

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
100.0730.108
200.0340.037
300.0180.017
400.0100.008
500.0050.004
600.0020.001
700.0000.000
800.0000.000
900.0000.000

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10.5790.642
20.3210.493
30.2170.385
40.1700.318
50.1370.252
60.1160.208
70.1020.172
80.0910.140
90.0830.122
100.0730.108
110.0650.095
120.0600.085
130.0540.076
140.0510.068
150.0470.061
160.0440.055
170.0410.049
180.0390.044
190.0360.040
200.0340.037
210.0320.034
220.0300.032
230.0280.029
240.0260.027
250.0250.026
260.0230.024
270.0220.022
280.0200.020
290.0190.019
300.0180.017
310.0170.016
320.0160.015
330.0150.014
340.0140.013
350.0140.012
360.0130.011
370.0120.010
380.0110.009
390.0100.009
400.0100.008
410.0090.007
420.0090.007
430.0080.006
440.0080.006
450.0070.006
460.0070.005
470.0060.005
480.0060.004
490.0060.004
500.0050.004
510.0050.003
520.0050.003
530.0040.003
540.0040.002
550.0040.002
560.0030.002
570.0030.002
580.0030.001
590.0030.001
600.0020.001
610.0020.001
620.0020.001
630.0020.000
640.0020.000
650.0010.000
660.0010.000
670.0010.000
680.0010.000
690.0010.000
700.0000.000
710.0000.000
720.0000.000
730.0000.000
740.0000.000
750.0000.000
760.0000.000
770.0000.000
780.0000.000
790.0000.000
800.0000.000
810.0000.000
820.0000.000
830.0000.000
840.0000.000
850.0000.000
860.0000.000
870.0000.000
880.0000.000
890.0000.000
900.0000.000
910.0000.000
920.0000.000
930.0000.000
940.0000.000
950.0000.000
960.0000.000
970.0000.000
980.0000.000
990.0000.000


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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