Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Porcupine Ck at Mt Emu Plains


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Product list for Porcupine Ck at Mt Emu Plains


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Historical and exceedance probability for Porcupine Ck at Mt Emu Plains(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1972+) (GL)Last year (2011) (GL)Observed (2012) (GL)Minimum (2005) (GL)10 yr average (2002+) (GL)Maximum (2000) (GL)
Oct0.0170.0370.0230.0000.0130.000
Oct-Nov0.7930.1440.0340.0000.29917.300
Oct-Dec4.6412.4740.0700.0005.22753.344

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
102.01821.021
200.4055.875
300.1131.525
400.0300.397
500.0050.120
600.0000.032
700.0000.008
800.0000.000
900.0000.000

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
120.89264.062
215.24050.366
311.10444.985
48.41640.552
56.07637.261
64.76432.667
73.94929.423
82.97826.377
92.42623.324
102.01821.021
111.66819.107
121.41716.996
131.21315.402
141.01113.818
150.85412.107
160.73510.784
170.6379.297
180.5567.873
190.4656.714
200.4055.875
210.3525.132
220.3004.385
230.2573.914
240.2293.300
250.2002.958
260.1802.688
270.1592.318
280.1442.056
290.1281.786
300.1131.525
310.0981.318
320.0841.134
330.0771.006
340.0700.892
350.0610.756
360.0520.661
370.0450.577
380.0400.508
390.0350.457
400.0300.397
410.0260.346
420.0220.312
430.0190.286
440.0170.253
450.0140.227
460.0120.200
470.0100.178
480.0080.153
490.0070.136
500.0050.120
510.0040.107
520.0030.095
530.0020.082
540.0010.072
550.0000.062
560.0000.052
570.0000.047
580.0000.042
590.0000.037
600.0000.032
610.0000.027
620.0000.024
630.0000.021
640.0000.018
650.0000.016
660.0000.014
670.0000.012
680.0000.010
690.0000.009
700.0000.008
710.0000.006
720.0000.005
730.0000.004
740.0000.004
750.0000.003
760.0000.002
770.0000.002
780.0000.001
790.0000.001
800.0000.000
810.0000.000
820.0000.000
830.0000.000
840.0000.000
850.0000.000
860.0000.000
870.0000.000
880.0000.000
890.0000.000
900.0000.000
910.0000.000
920.0000.000
930.0000.000
940.0000.000
950.0000.000
960.0000.000
970.0000.000
980.0000.000
990.0000.000


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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