Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Porcupine Ck at Mt Emu Plains


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Product list for Porcupine Ck at Mt Emu Plains


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Historical and exceedance probability for Porcupine Ck at Mt Emu Plains(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1972+) (GL)Last year (2011) (GL)Observed (2012) (GL)Minimum (2002) (GL)10 yr average (2002+) (GL)Maximum (1990) (GL)
Dec3.8492.3300.0370.0004.9280.000
Dec-Jan16.58935.3310.1810.00021.02292.301
Dec-Feb28.26161.4210.3300.00034.912135.426

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1082.041
2047.880
3029.241
4016.815
509.940
605.524
703.130
801.607
900.616

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1173.417
2144.252
3132.799
4123.371
5116.378
6106.632
799.763
893.327
986.888
1082.041
1178.012
1273.560
1370.181
1466.796
1563.080
1660.139
1756.718
1853.256
1950.237
2047.880
2145.625
2243.148
2341.438
2438.983
2537.471
2636.186
2734.263
2832.767
2931.065
3029.241
3127.621
3226.025
3324.802
3423.629
3522.074
3620.877
3719.724
3818.686
3917.861
4016.815
4115.844
4215.150
4314.582
4413.827
4513.172
4612.466
4711.849
4811.079
4910.520
509.940
519.435
528.948
538.403
547.905
557.423
566.868
576.556
586.251
595.928
605.524
615.142
624.875
634.636
644.354
654.143
663.936
673.750
683.516
693.287
703.130
712.923
722.764
732.586
742.434
752.273
762.135
771.992
781.866
791.751
801.607
811.479
821.364
831.240
841.143
851.063
860.960
870.862
880.787
890.703
900.616
910.542
920.461
930.382
940.298
950.245
960.190
970.122
980.075
990.031


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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