Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Porcupine Ck at Mt Emu Plains


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Product list for Porcupine Ck at Mt Emu Plains


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Historical and exceedance probability for Porcupine Ck at Mt Emu Plains(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1972+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (1985) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1974) (GL)
Jan12.76033.0010.1450.03116.09494.227
Jan-Feb24.48159.0910.2940.03329.985127.195
Jan-Mar28.23582.3630.3090.03335.174138.624

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1073.141
2038.701
3023.589
4014.418
509.252
605.679
703.562
802.052
900.924

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1186.434
2149.389
3134.796
4123.000
5114.008
6102.173
793.883
886.162
978.655
1073.141
1168.664
1263.854
1360.258
1456.702
1552.938
1650.067
1746.745
1843.495
1940.769
2038.701
2136.756
2234.582
2333.229
2431.201
2530.001
2628.984
2727.435
2826.254
2924.989
3023.589
3122.386
3221.165
3320.261
3419.434
3518.263
3617.405
3716.552
3815.801
3915.188
4014.418
4113.698
4213.192
4312.762
4412.205
4511.718
4611.177
4710.724
4810.135
499.698
509.252
518.860
528.485
538.041
547.657
557.247
566.812
576.553
586.296
596.031
605.679
615.360
625.132
634.921
644.678
654.491
664.305
674.135
683.922
693.710
703.562
713.367
723.215
733.043
742.894
752.735
762.598
772.453
782.323
792.203
802.052
811.916
821.791
831.656
841.547
851.456
861.338
871.222
881.134
891.031
900.924
910.829
920.724
930.619
940.502
950.425
960.344
970.237
980.158
990.079


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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