Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Porcupine Ck at Mt Emu Plains


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Product list for Porcupine Ck at Mt Emu Plains


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Historical and exceedance probability for Porcupine Ck at Mt Emu Plains(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1972+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2004) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1990) (GL)
Jun0.3730.3170.0170.0000.2739.107
Jun-Jul0.4663.1190.0340.0000.6039.141
Jun-Aug0.4873.2660.0470.0000.6299.141

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
100.4490.814
200.1660.214
300.0820.086
400.0430.035
500.0220.014
600.0100.004
700.0030.000
800.0000.000
900.0000.000

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
14.2439.400
22.6795.637
31.8984.286
41.4393.311
51.0142.662
60.8191.948
70.6971.541
80.5871.226
90.5160.972
100.4490.814
110.3940.702
120.3540.595
130.3170.523
140.2800.459
150.2500.397
160.2290.354
170.2130.309
180.1950.268
190.1820.236
200.1660.214
210.1570.194
220.1440.173
230.1350.161
240.1270.143
250.1170.133
260.1080.125
270.1010.113
280.0950.104
290.0870.096
300.0820.086
310.0770.078
320.0720.071
330.0690.065
340.0650.061
350.0600.054
360.0570.050
370.0530.045
380.0500.041
390.0460.038
400.0430.035
410.0400.032
420.0370.029
430.0350.028
440.0330.025
450.0310.023
460.0290.021
470.0270.020
480.0250.017
490.0230.016
500.0220.014
510.0200.013
520.0190.012
530.0180.010
540.0160.009
550.0150.008
560.0140.007
570.0130.006
580.0120.005
590.0110.005
600.0100.004
610.0090.003
620.0090.002
630.0080.002
640.0070.001
650.0060.001
660.0060.001
670.0050.000
680.0040.000
690.0040.000
700.0030.000
710.0030.000
720.0020.000
730.0020.000
740.0010.000
750.0010.000
760.0000.000
770.0000.000
780.0000.000
790.0000.000
800.0000.000
810.0000.000
820.0000.000
830.0000.000
840.0000.000
850.0000.000
860.0000.000
870.0000.000
880.0000.000
890.0000.000
900.0000.000
910.0000.000
920.0000.000
930.0000.000
940.0000.000
950.0000.000
960.0000.000
970.0000.000
980.0000.000
990.0000.000


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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