Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Elizabeth Creek at Mt Surprise


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Product list for Elizabeth Creek at Mt Surprise


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Exceedance probability for Elizabeth Creek at Mt Surprise( Sep 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
101.8774.048
201.2762.827
300.9012.041
400.6901.354
500.5300.855
600.4030.477
700.3030.262
800.2110.129
900.1220.047

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
14.1637.137
23.3786.155
32.9465.769
42.7465.451
52.5615.215
62.4094.885
72.2354.652
82.0984.434
91.9804.214
101.8774.048
111.7783.909
121.7083.755
131.6303.637
141.5703.518
151.5243.387
161.4723.281
171.4243.157
181.3723.030
191.3152.917
201.2762.827
211.2292.740
221.1842.643
231.1502.574
241.1112.473
251.0732.410
261.0392.355
271.0012.272
280.9662.205
290.9272.127
300.9012.041
310.8791.962
320.8571.882
330.8341.819
340.8121.757
350.7851.671
360.7671.603
370.7431.536
380.7241.473
390.7091.421
400.6901.354
410.6711.290
420.6531.243
430.6361.204
440.6211.151
450.6021.103
460.5871.051
470.5741.005
480.5590.945
490.5430.901
500.5300.855
510.5170.814
520.5000.773
530.4860.728
540.4740.686
550.4620.644
560.4500.596
570.4380.568
580.4260.542
590.4140.513
600.4030.477
610.3910.443
620.3790.419
630.3660.398
640.3580.372
650.3510.353
660.3420.335
670.3310.318
680.3200.297
690.3110.276
700.3030.262
710.2920.244
720.2810.230
730.2700.214
740.2610.201
750.2520.187
760.2450.175
770.2370.162
780.2280.151
790.2190.141
800.2110.129
810.2020.118
820.1940.108
830.1850.098
840.1770.090
850.1650.083
860.1570.075
870.1470.067
880.1380.061
890.1300.054
900.1220.047
910.1120.041
920.1020.035
930.0930.029
940.0820.023
950.0730.019
960.0620.015
970.0520.010
980.0400.007
990.0220.004


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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