Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Elizabeth Creek at Mt Surprise


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Product list for Elizabeth Creek at Mt Surprise


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Exceedance probability for Elizabeth Creek at Mt Surprise(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1088.782
2047.059
3030.274
4019.851
5013.664
609.101
706.169
803.923
902.069

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1279.268
2210.329
3184.550
4164.186
5149.703
6130.566
7117.905
8106.720
996.221
1088.782
1182.904
1276.726
1372.258
1467.966
1563.461
1660.042
1756.221
1852.516
1949.409
2047.059
2144.870
2242.524
2340.939
2438.710
2537.361
2636.228
2734.553
2833.266
2931.815
3030.274
3128.915
3227.582
3326.563
3425.586
3524.289
3623.289
3722.321
3821.445
3920.745
4019.851
4119.013
4218.409
4317.911
4417.243
4516.658
4616.020
4715.456
4814.742
4914.217
5013.664
5113.175
5212.699
5312.156
5411.652
5511.156
5610.573
5710.239
589.908
599.553
609.101
618.663
628.353
638.070
647.730
657.472
667.215
676.979
686.679
696.380
706.169
715.888
725.669
735.418
745.199
754.962
764.757
774.538
784.341
794.157
803.923
813.709
823.512
833.295
843.119
852.970
862.776
872.582
882.431
892.256
902.069
911.900
921.710
931.518
941.297
951.147
960.985
970.765
980.593
990.413


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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