Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Elizabeth Creek at Mt Surprise


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Product list for Elizabeth Creek at Mt Surprise



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Exceedance probability for Elizabeth Creek at Mt Surprise ( Feb 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1034.92987.099
2023.73148.526
3017.10430.957
4012.36319.780
509.32113.218
606.7998.501
704.6675.569
802.6593.406
900.8281.705

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
177.215213.426
262.022171.771
354.960155.566
449.739142.342
546.206132.630
643.592119.278
741.153110.035
838.991101.535
936.56993.218
1034.92987.099
1133.68182.118
1231.94376.734
1330.42672.739
1429.03768.819
1527.85664.615
1626.99461.361
1726.02757.663
1825.09754.013
1924.28450.904
2023.73148.526
2122.84646.289
2221.99243.872
2321.37142.227
2420.75439.899
2520.08638.481
2619.39637.287
2718.73335.514
2818.14134.147
2917.57532.602
3017.10430.957
3116.49229.502
3215.91228.073
3315.38926.980
3414.92025.931
3514.50824.539
3613.94723.464
3713.58322.426
3813.12321.487
3912.76120.737
4012.36319.780
4111.98718.884
4211.71418.240
4311.38717.709
4411.00316.999
4510.73116.377
4610.38515.701
4710.04415.105
489.79414.351
499.56313.798
509.32113.218
519.01612.706
528.72012.208
538.41711.643
548.17611.121
557.93010.607
567.73110.006
577.5069.663
587.2309.324
597.0068.962
606.7998.501
616.5488.058
626.3377.744
636.1357.459
645.9007.118
655.6446.860
665.4696.603
675.2476.369
685.0396.072
694.8445.776
704.6675.569
714.4565.294
724.2325.080
734.0454.836
743.8114.624
753.6184.396
763.4264.198
773.2343.989
783.0533.801
792.8513.627
802.6593.406
812.4873.205
822.3013.021
832.1542.819
841.9772.656
851.7882.519
861.5982.342
871.4072.166
881.2272.030
891.0381.872
900.8281.705
910.6481.557
920.4851.390
930.2751.223
940.0831.034
950.0000.908
960.0000.773
970.0000.593
980.0000.455
990.0000.315


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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