Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Elizabeth Creek at Mt Surprise


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Product list for Elizabeth Creek at Mt Surprise


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Probability distribution for Elizabeth Creek at Mt Surprise( Apr 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile1.2720.491
Median2.7861.588
Mean4.5574.239
75% Quartile5.8635.004
Interquartile Range4.5914.513

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
124.94331.355
220.21325.009
317.77122.540
415.98020.524
514.53819.045
613.47717.012
712.56015.607
811.88314.317
911.21213.059
1010.65412.136
1110.14811.387
129.68910.581
139.1849.984
148.7299.402
158.4018.780
168.0638.300
177.7947.758
187.4927.226
197.2526.776
207.0146.433
216.8046.112
226.5335.767
236.3065.533
246.0695.204
255.8635.004
265.6774.836
275.5314.588
285.3274.398
295.1414.183
304.9623.956
314.8003.756
324.6473.561
334.5333.412
344.3893.269
354.2293.081
364.1152.936
374.0102.797
383.9252.671
393.8222.571
403.7212.444
413.6062.326
423.5192.241
433.4332.171
443.3482.078
453.2501.997
463.1451.909
473.0541.831
482.9461.734
492.8711.663
502.7861.588
512.7191.522
522.6311.459
532.5311.387
542.4561.320
552.3631.255
562.3001.180
572.2421.137
582.1811.094
592.1201.049
602.0620.991
612.0080.936
621.9460.897
631.8910.862
641.8410.820
651.7940.789
661.7290.757
671.6690.729
681.6220.692
691.5590.657
701.5000.632
711.4410.598
721.4060.573
731.3540.543
741.3150.518
751.2720.491
761.2180.467
771.1770.443
781.1340.420
791.0880.400
801.0420.374
810.9740.351
820.9230.329
830.8770.306
840.8300.287
850.7930.271
860.7510.251
870.7160.231
880.6660.216
890.6310.198
900.5790.179
910.5370.163
920.4850.144
930.4390.126
940.4000.105
950.3570.092
960.3130.077
970.2660.058
980.1990.044
990.1320.030


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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