Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Elizabeth Creek at Mt Surprise


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Product list for Elizabeth Creek at Mt Surprise


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Probability distribution for Elizabeth Creek at Mt Surprise( Jul 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile0.7570.210
Median1.0100.813
Mean1.0741.542
75% Quartile1.3262.341
Interquartile Range0.5702.130

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
12.3437.609
22.1486.506
32.0376.072
41.9565.716
51.8975.451
61.8305.081
71.7824.820
81.7394.575
91.7014.329
101.6674.143
111.6313.988
121.6093.816
131.5823.685
141.5593.553
151.5303.407
161.5003.290
171.4783.153
181.4573.013
191.4392.889
201.4152.791
211.3962.696
221.3802.591
231.3622.516
241.3452.408
251.3272.341
261.3122.282
271.2942.194
281.2812.123
291.2672.042
301.2541.953
311.2391.872
321.2261.790
331.2141.726
341.2011.663
351.1861.578
361.1701.511
371.1571.445
381.1451.384
391.1361.334
401.1241.271
411.1131.210
421.0981.166
431.0821.130
441.0711.081
451.0591.037
461.0480.990
471.0380.947
481.0290.894
491.0180.855
501.0100.813
511.0010.777
520.9910.741
530.9820.701
540.9730.663
550.9640.627
560.9540.584
570.9420.560
580.9330.536
590.9210.511
600.9100.479
610.8980.448
620.8900.427
630.8800.407
640.8690.384
650.8610.367
660.8480.350
670.8400.335
680.8310.315
690.8210.296
700.8080.283
710.7990.266
720.7890.252
730.7810.237
740.7700.224
750.7570.210
760.7460.198
770.7330.186
780.7220.175
790.7070.165
800.6970.152
810.6850.141
820.6720.131
830.6630.120
840.6470.111
850.6350.104
860.6230.095
870.6100.086
880.5930.079
890.5780.071
900.5630.064
910.5460.057
920.5250.049
930.5040.042
940.4900.034
950.4680.029
960.4360.023
970.4100.017
980.3670.012
990.3220.008


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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