Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Elizabeth Creek at Mt Surprise


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Product list for Elizabeth Creek at Mt Surprise


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Probability distribution for Elizabeth Creek at Mt Surprise( Aug 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile0.4140.175
Median0.5590.743
Mean0.6021.323
75% Quartile0.7452.064
Interquartile Range0.3301.889

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
11.4006.179
21.2635.323
31.1954.986
41.1254.709
51.0844.503
61.0504.216
71.0154.013
80.9923.823
90.9663.631
100.9453.487
110.9263.366
120.9083.232
130.8953.129
140.8763.026
150.8632.911
160.8512.819
170.8382.712
180.8232.601
190.8092.503
200.7942.425
210.7832.350
220.7722.265
230.7612.206
240.7532.119
250.7452.064
260.7352.017
270.7241.945
280.7141.887
290.7041.820
300.6951.747
310.6861.679
320.6801.610
330.6721.556
340.6651.503
350.6581.430
360.6491.373
370.6421.315
380.6341.262
390.6271.219
400.6201.162
410.6121.108
420.6051.068
430.6001.035
440.5940.991
450.5890.951
460.5820.907
470.5760.868
480.5700.819
490.5650.782
500.5590.743
510.5530.709
520.5480.675
530.5440.637
540.5370.601
550.5320.567
560.5270.526
570.5210.503
580.5160.480
590.5090.456
600.5040.426
610.4990.397
620.4940.377
630.4880.358
640.4830.337
650.4780.320
660.4710.304
670.4640.290
680.4580.272
690.4520.254
700.4470.242
710.4400.226
720.4330.213
730.4270.200
740.4220.188
750.4140.175
760.4090.165
770.4020.153
780.3960.144
790.3900.135
800.3830.124
810.3750.114
820.3700.105
830.3630.095
840.3570.088
850.3500.082
860.3430.074
870.3380.066
880.3300.061
890.3220.054
900.3140.048
910.3050.042
920.2940.036
930.2820.030
940.2700.024
950.2560.020
960.2410.016
970.2250.011
980.2070.008
990.1760.005


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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