Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Elizabeth Creek at Mt Surprise


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Product list for Elizabeth Creek at Mt Surprise


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Probability distribution for Elizabeth Creek at Mt Surprise(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile2.3830.491
Median5.0711.588
Mean7.4204.239
75% Quartile10.0305.004
Interquartile Range7.6474.513

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
135.56231.355
228.63925.009
325.39122.540
423.10920.524
521.45819.045
620.22617.012
718.96215.607
817.99214.317
917.20913.059
1016.55012.136
1115.77611.387
1215.07910.581
1314.4809.984
1413.9749.402
1513.5338.780
1613.1088.300
1712.6727.758
1812.2737.226
1911.9016.776
2011.5556.433
2111.2686.112
2210.9355.767
2310.5925.533
2410.3005.204
2510.0345.004
269.7974.836
279.5104.588
289.2654.398
298.9844.183
308.6523.956
318.4493.756
328.1683.561
337.9313.412
347.7133.269
357.5003.081
367.2872.936
377.1122.797
386.9952.671
396.8052.571
406.6722.444
416.5312.326
426.3662.241
436.2032.171
446.0322.078
455.8691.997
465.6971.909
475.5321.831
485.4031.734
495.2211.663
505.0711.588
514.9351.522
524.8171.459
534.6461.387
544.5511.320
554.4271.255
564.3011.180
574.1681.137
584.0441.094
593.9281.049
603.8370.991
613.7120.936
623.6200.897
633.5280.862
643.4340.820
653.2860.789
663.1940.757
673.1120.729
683.0060.692
692.9260.657
702.8220.632
712.7270.598
722.6380.573
732.5630.543
742.4830.518
752.3830.491
762.3040.467
772.2010.443
782.1250.420
792.0350.400
801.9520.374
811.8540.351
821.7900.329
831.6920.306
841.5990.287
851.5100.271
861.4090.251
871.3330.231
881.2610.216
891.1810.198
901.1020.179
911.0290.163
920.9370.144
930.8590.126
940.7730.105
950.7010.092
960.6220.077
970.5260.058
980.3990.044
990.2710.030


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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