Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Elizabeth Creek at Mt Surprise


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Product list for Elizabeth Creek at Mt Surprise


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Probability distribution for Elizabeth Creek at Mt Surprise(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile1.0680.383
Median1.7021.176
Mean2.1182.646
75% Quartile2.7463.419
Interquartile Range1.6783.036

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
17.64116.748
26.52513.703
35.93912.513
45.46211.538
55.05610.819
64.8289.825
74.5699.131
84.3888.488
94.1967.853
104.0537.381
113.9106.994
123.7916.571
133.6916.255
143.5615.942
153.4735.604
163.3915.340
173.3105.037
183.2124.735
193.1544.476
203.0854.276
213.0164.088
222.9403.882
232.8763.741
242.8093.541
252.7473.419
262.6983.316
272.6443.161
282.5813.042
292.5212.907
302.4682.762
312.4212.634
322.3682.507
332.3232.410
342.2832.317
352.2262.193
362.1892.097
372.1422.004
382.0961.920
392.0631.853
402.0161.767
411.9821.686
421.9411.628
431.9121.580
441.8781.516
451.8511.460
461.8281.399
471.7901.346
481.7611.278
491.7341.228
501.7021.176
511.6751.129
521.6491.085
531.6161.034
541.5860.986
551.5530.940
561.5250.886
571.5010.855
581.4780.825
591.4560.792
601.4330.751
611.4070.711
621.3810.683
631.3520.657
641.3250.627
651.2970.603
661.2780.580
671.2590.559
681.2400.533
691.2090.506
701.1880.488
711.1620.463
721.1360.444
731.1110.422
741.0880.404
751.0680.383
761.0410.366
771.0170.347
780.9930.331
790.9570.315
800.9260.295
810.8990.278
820.8740.261
830.8530.244
840.8280.229
850.8050.217
860.7750.202
870.7480.186
880.7220.174
890.6930.161
900.6520.146
910.6220.133
920.5930.119
930.5620.104
940.5270.088
950.4890.077
960.4560.065
970.4090.050
980.3520.038
990.2720.026


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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