Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Elizabeth Creek at Mt Surprise


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Product list for Elizabeth Creek at Mt Surprise


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Probability distribution for Elizabeth Creek at Mt Surprise(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile0.8120.267
Median1.3450.901
Mean1.6781.846
75% Quartile2.1932.627
Interquartile Range1.3812.360

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
15.98710.086
25.1688.485
34.6137.856
44.3327.339
54.0186.956
63.8496.422
73.6586.046
83.5145.694
93.3885.343
103.2535.078
113.1304.858
123.0474.615
132.9604.431
142.8894.246
152.8034.043
162.7103.883
172.6463.695
182.5933.505
192.5183.339
202.4673.209
212.4023.084
222.3452.946
232.2892.850
242.2472.712
252.1932.627
262.1502.554
272.1042.443
282.0542.357
292.0152.258
301.9732.151
311.9332.055
321.8911.959
331.8651.885
341.8311.814
351.7951.717
361.7611.642
371.7261.569
381.6921.502
391.6521.449
401.6191.380
411.5971.315
421.5741.269
431.5471.230
441.5111.178
451.4801.133
461.4471.083
471.4201.039
481.3980.984
491.3740.943
501.3450.901
511.3220.863
521.3030.827
531.2730.785
541.2490.747
551.2270.709
561.2050.665
571.1840.640
581.1640.616
591.1420.589
601.1190.556
611.0970.524
621.0710.502
631.0490.481
641.0290.457
651.0130.438
660.9960.420
670.9730.404
680.9520.383
690.9320.362
700.9120.348
710.8940.328
720.8710.314
730.8550.297
740.8350.282
750.8110.267
760.7920.253
770.7730.239
780.7530.227
790.7370.215
800.7150.200
810.6910.187
820.6720.175
830.6480.162
840.6260.151
850.6020.142
860.5820.131
870.5570.120
880.5330.111
890.5130.102
900.4950.091
910.4690.082
920.4450.072
930.4190.062
940.3920.051
950.3610.044
960.3300.036
970.2860.026
980.2370.019
990.1860.012


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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