Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Elizabeth Creek at Mt Surprise


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Product list for Elizabeth Creek at Mt Surprise


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Probability distribution for Elizabeth Creek at Mt Surprise(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile1.2250.175
Median1.5160.743
Mean1.5441.323
75% Quartile1.8362.064
Interquartile Range0.6111.889

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
12.6866.179
22.5575.323
32.4494.986
42.3804.709
52.3224.503
62.2734.216
72.2344.013
82.1923.823
92.1643.631
102.1383.487
112.1053.366
122.0793.232
132.0553.129
142.0313.026
152.0072.911
161.9882.819
171.9722.712
181.9522.601
191.9332.503
201.9152.425
211.9002.350
221.8842.265
231.8682.206
241.8502.119
251.8362.064
261.8212.017
271.8081.945
281.7951.887
291.7781.820
301.7641.747
311.7461.679
321.7331.610
331.7201.556
341.7051.503
351.6931.430
361.6821.373
371.6691.315
381.6561.262
391.6461.219
401.6361.162
411.6261.108
421.6091.068
431.5971.035
441.5840.991
451.5730.951
461.5590.907
471.5470.868
481.5360.819
491.5280.782
501.5160.743
511.5060.709
521.4950.675
531.4880.637
541.4770.601
551.4670.567
561.4560.526
571.4460.503
581.4340.480
591.4210.456
601.4110.426
611.4020.397
621.3900.377
631.3780.358
641.3700.337
651.3580.320
661.3450.304
671.3310.290
681.3190.272
691.3050.254
701.2920.242
711.2790.226
721.2670.213
731.2550.200
741.2400.188
751.2250.175
761.2110.165
771.1980.153
781.1830.144
791.1690.135
801.1540.124
811.1380.114
821.1210.105
831.1060.095
841.0880.088
851.0760.082
861.0600.074
871.0460.066
881.0270.061
891.0070.054
900.9860.048
910.9680.042
920.9380.036
930.9050.030
940.8770.024
950.8410.020
960.8050.016
970.7530.011
980.6980.008
990.6070.005


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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