Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Elizabeth Creek at Mt Surprise


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Product list for Elizabeth Creek at Mt Surprise


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Probability distribution for Elizabeth Creek at Mt Surprise(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile0.6820.187
Median1.3310.855
Mean1.7271.531
75% Quartile2.3822.410
Interquartile Range1.6992.223

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
16.4927.137
25.6286.155
35.1015.769
44.6975.451
54.4435.215
64.2244.885
74.0784.652
83.9284.434
93.8004.214
103.6624.048
113.5373.909
123.4233.755
133.2953.637
143.1893.518
153.1143.387
163.0303.281
172.9583.157
182.8773.030
192.8042.917
202.7372.827
212.6652.740
222.5822.643
232.5142.574
242.4482.473
252.3822.410
262.3362.355
272.2792.272
282.2252.205
292.1632.127
302.1202.041
312.0701.962
322.0181.882
331.9641.819
341.9051.757
351.8541.671
361.8101.603
371.7721.536
381.7391.473
391.7051.421
401.6641.354
411.6281.290
421.5931.243
431.5601.204
441.5221.151
451.4841.103
461.4561.051
471.4281.005
481.3950.945
491.3580.901
501.3310.855
511.2990.814
521.2700.773
531.2420.728
541.2120.686
551.1870.644
561.1560.596
571.1190.568
581.0980.542
591.0710.513
601.0430.477
611.0150.443
620.9940.419
630.9630.398
640.9380.372
650.9160.353
660.8870.335
670.8620.318
680.8380.297
690.8140.276
700.7880.262
710.7670.244
720.7400.230
730.7190.214
740.7010.201
750.6820.187
760.6590.175
770.6420.162
780.6190.151
790.5950.141
800.5740.129
810.5530.118
820.5280.108
830.5080.098
840.4890.090
850.4630.083
860.4380.075
870.4130.067
880.3870.061
890.3630.054
900.3400.047
910.3180.041
920.2980.035
930.2720.029
940.2470.023
950.2190.019
960.1950.015
970.1660.010
980.1310.007
990.0920.004


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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