Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Elizabeth Creek at Mt Surprise


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Product list for Elizabeth Creek at Mt Surprise


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Probability distribution for Elizabeth Creek at Mt Surprise(  )

Basic Statistics
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile1.462
Median4.721
Mean16.291
75% Quartile15.209
Interquartile Range13.747

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1174.311
2124.075
3105.672
491.422
581.501
668.741
760.562
853.539
947.134
1042.714
1139.294
1235.773
1333.272
1430.908
1528.468
1626.645
1724.637
1822.720
1921.137
2019.954
2118.863
2217.707
2316.933
2415.856
2515.209
2614.670
2713.879
2813.276
2912.602
3011.892
3111.272
3210.669
3310.211
349.775
359.201
368.762
378.340
387.961
397.660
407.278
416.923
426.669
436.460
446.181
455.939
465.676
475.445
485.155
494.943
504.721
514.526
524.337
534.123
543.926
553.733
563.508
573.380
583.254
593.120
602.950
612.786
622.671
632.566
642.442
652.348
662.255
672.170
682.062
691.955
701.881
711.782
721.706
731.618
741.543
751.462
761.392
771.318
781.252
791.191
801.113
811.043
820.979
830.909
840.853
850.806
860.745
870.685
880.639
890.585
900.529
910.479
920.424
930.368
940.306
950.265
960.221
970.163
980.120
990.076


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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