Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Elizabeth Creek at Mt Surprise


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Product list for Elizabeth Creek at Mt Surprise



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Probability distribution for Elizabeth Creek at Mt Surprise ( Mar 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile1.9401.430
Median5.4684.686
Mean11.06415.256
75% Quartile14.34215.313
Interquartile Range12.40213.883

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
168.070144.136
256.334108.062
350.30194.342
445.20783.388
541.38075.532
638.26365.078
735.20958.128
832.84251.982
930.42846.222
1028.50242.156
1127.00038.960
1225.68435.621
1324.34133.223
1423.23530.935
1522.19128.553
1621.16226.760
1720.06624.774
1819.15622.868
1918.33621.285
2017.68520.099
2116.82219.002
2216.32217.837
2315.64717.057
2414.99315.968
2514.34215.314
2613.81014.768
2713.29713.966
2812.69813.355
2912.11712.671
3011.73311.951
3111.32711.321
3210.75410.709
3310.39810.244
3410.0069.801
359.6609.219
369.3188.773
378.8828.345
388.5247.961
398.2117.656
407.8767.269
417.5216.910
427.2426.652
436.9476.441
446.7196.159
456.5375.914
466.3115.649
476.0565.416
485.8515.123
495.6604.909
505.4684.686
515.2714.489
525.0924.299
534.9084.084
544.7343.886
554.5173.693
564.4023.467
574.2713.339
584.1183.213
593.9263.078
603.7832.908
613.6472.745
623.4942.630
633.3592.526
643.1942.402
653.0682.308
662.9342.215
672.8152.131
682.6842.024
692.5701.918
702.4621.844
712.3811.747
722.2451.671
732.1391.585
742.0261.510
751.9391.430
761.8181.361
771.7381.288
781.6701.224
791.5791.163
801.4661.087
811.3831.019
821.2910.956
831.1780.887
841.1060.833
851.0220.787
860.9240.727
870.8450.669
880.7710.624
890.6970.572
900.6050.517
910.5200.469
920.4350.416
930.3670.362
940.2830.303
950.2090.263
960.1370.221
970.0490.167
980.0000.126
990.0000.085


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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