Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Elizabeth Creek at Mt Surprise


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Product list for Elizabeth Creek at Mt Surprise



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Probability distribution for Elizabeth Creek at Mt Surprise ( Jun 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile0.4460.267
Median0.7650.901
Mean1.0021.846
75% Quartile1.2882.627
Interquartile Range0.8422.360

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
14.20310.086
23.4788.485
33.0567.856
42.7877.339
52.5876.956
62.4246.422
72.2996.046
82.2055.694
92.1045.343
102.0265.078
111.9464.858
121.8624.615
131.7834.431
141.7174.246
151.6694.043
161.6233.883
171.5743.695
181.5313.505
191.4993.339
201.4533.209
211.4133.084
221.3822.946
231.3502.850
241.3202.712
251.2882.627
261.2622.554
271.2362.443
281.2122.357
291.1822.258
301.1562.151
311.1332.055
321.1091.959
331.0841.885
341.0591.814
351.0391.717
361.0201.642
370.9971.569
380.9751.502
390.9531.449
400.9331.380
410.9141.315
420.8961.269
430.8791.230
440.8651.178
450.8501.133
460.8331.083
470.8121.039
480.7980.984
490.7820.943
500.7650.901
510.7500.863
520.7320.827
530.7160.785
540.7000.747
550.6870.709
560.6770.665
570.6630.640
580.6490.616
590.6360.589
600.6240.556
610.6120.524
620.6020.502
630.5910.481
640.5800.457
650.5690.438
660.5570.420
670.5450.404
680.5320.383
690.5220.362
700.5070.348
710.4920.328
720.4800.314
730.4720.297
740.4560.282
750.4460.267
760.4350.253
770.4260.239
780.4170.227
790.4020.215
800.3890.200
810.3780.187
820.3650.175
830.3540.162
840.3420.151
850.3280.142
860.3160.131
870.3010.120
880.2890.111
890.2770.102
900.2640.091
910.2490.082
920.2340.072
930.2190.062
940.2050.051
950.1910.044
960.1690.036
970.1470.026
980.1190.019
990.0900.012


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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