Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Elizabeth Creek at Mt Surprise


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Product list for Elizabeth Creek at Mt Surprise


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Historical and exceedance probability for Elizabeth Creek at Mt Surprise( Oct 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1968+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1989) (GL)
Oct0.4430.4350.0010.4530.045
Oct-Nov1.1761.0630.0011.1027.197
Oct-Dec3.2101.3990.0063.13721.472

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
104.00510.749
202.3865.431
301.6023.088
401.0961.743
500.8011.040
600.5620.591
700.3880.346
800.2340.185
900.1040.077

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
113.63627.011
210.50121.780
38.69419.709
47.52918.027
56.47016.738
65.75215.030
75.14613.823
84.62712.689
94.30411.575
104.00510.749
113.78010.073
123.5839.341
133.3728.790
143.2058.242
153.0677.659
162.9147.212
172.7766.693
182.6396.183
192.5075.756
202.3865.431
212.2875.126
222.1974.785
232.1044.574
242.0334.258
251.9404.072
261.8583.914
271.7783.675
281.7063.494
291.6463.301
301.6023.088
311.5402.907
321.4802.724
331.4342.589
341.3732.467
351.3302.295
361.2872.170
371.2222.047
381.1781.939
391.1291.852
401.0961.743
411.0661.642
421.0341.572
431.0061.512
440.9731.436
450.9451.369
460.9111.296
470.8841.235
480.8551.157
490.8321.099
500.8011.040
510.7760.989
520.7540.941
530.7250.884
540.7010.835
550.6820.784
560.6560.729
570.6360.697
580.6140.666
590.5830.634
600.5620.591
610.5470.553
620.5270.526
630.5110.501
640.4910.473
650.4730.451
660.4540.429
670.4400.410
680.4250.386
690.4050.362
700.3880.346
710.3710.324
720.3580.307
730.3420.289
740.3240.273
750.3070.256
760.2930.241
770.2770.226
780.2610.212
790.2460.200
800.2340.185
810.2190.171
820.2020.159
830.1850.145
840.1730.135
850.1630.126
860.1510.115
870.1400.104
880.1290.096
890.1180.086
900.1040.077
910.0910.068
920.0800.059
930.0670.050
940.0520.041
950.0400.034
960.0290.028
970.0170.020
980.0000.014
990.0000.009


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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