Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Elizabeth Creek at Mt Surprise


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Product list for Elizabeth Creek at Mt Surprise


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Historical and exceedance probability for Elizabeth Creek at Mt Surprise(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1968+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1989) (GL)
Oct0.4430.7310.4350.0010.4210.045
Oct-Nov1.1791.4041.0630.0011.0117.197
Oct-Dec3.2512.0351.3990.0063.02321.472

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
107.64810.749
204.6605.431
303.1893.088
402.2311.743
501.6591.040
601.1960.591
700.8450.346
800.5330.185
900.2710.077

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
121.74327.011
218.01021.780
314.71719.709
413.01418.027
511.61016.738
610.40415.030
79.53413.823
88.89312.689
98.25711.575
107.64810.749
117.26110.073
126.8579.341
136.5208.790
146.2108.242
155.9177.659
165.6957.212
175.4086.693
185.1606.183
194.9435.756
204.6605.431
214.4525.126
224.3214.785
234.2004.574
244.0194.258
253.8494.072
263.6893.914
273.5653.675
283.4173.494
293.3103.301
303.1893.088
313.0992.907
322.9722.724
332.8732.589
342.7892.467
352.6992.295
362.5852.170
372.4822.047
382.4061.939
392.3101.852
402.2311.743
412.1661.642
422.1101.572
432.0551.512
441.9961.436
451.9271.369
461.8771.296
471.8191.235
481.7611.157
491.7151.099
501.6591.040
511.6040.989
521.5500.941
531.5060.884
541.4600.835
551.4180.784
561.3700.729
571.3280.697
581.2820.666
591.2350.634
601.1960.591
611.1640.553
621.1290.526
631.0770.501
641.0440.473
651.0090.451
660.9800.429
670.9540.410
680.9160.386
690.8780.362
700.8450.346
710.8040.324
720.7730.307
730.7460.289
740.7200.273
750.6830.256
760.6530.241
770.6190.226
780.5850.212
790.5610.200
800.5330.185
810.5050.171
820.4780.159
830.4510.145
840.4210.135
850.3930.126
860.3740.115
870.3570.104
880.3270.096
890.2970.086
900.2710.077
910.2450.068
920.2200.059
930.1960.050
940.1670.041
950.1330.034
960.1120.028
970.0890.020
980.0540.014
990.0260.009


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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