Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Elizabeth Creek at Mt Surprise


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Historical and exceedance probability for Elizabeth Creek at Mt Surprise ( May 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1968+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (1996) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1974) (GL)
May1.3730.8060.4340.0121.3518.949
May-Jun2.1821.4150.8500.0332.33614.377
May-Jul2.8832.0261.0860.0493.21518.190

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
104.9347.381
203.7994.276
303.0482.762
402.5041.767
502.1221.176
601.7790.751
701.4870.488
801.1610.295
900.8190.146

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
18.99716.748
27.73213.703
37.04612.513
46.49511.538
56.07010.819
65.7649.825
75.5059.131
85.2698.488
95.1277.853
104.9347.381
114.7766.994
124.6026.571
134.4796.255
144.3665.942
154.2445.604
164.1435.340
174.0485.037
183.9584.735
193.8884.476
203.7994.276
213.7024.088
223.6283.882
233.5353.741
243.4663.541
253.3903.419
263.3213.316
273.2533.161
283.1883.042
293.1242.907
303.0482.762
312.9822.634
322.9282.507
332.8712.410
342.8292.317
352.7612.193
362.7092.097
372.6572.004
382.5981.920
392.5431.853
402.5041.767
412.4631.686
422.4171.628
432.3691.580
442.3361.516
452.2951.460
462.2671.399
472.2341.346
482.1951.278
492.1561.228
502.1221.176
512.0841.129
522.0491.085
532.0151.034
541.9740.986
551.9340.940
561.9050.886
571.8770.855
581.8480.825
591.8080.792
601.7790.751
611.7540.711
621.7210.683
631.6870.657
641.6560.627
651.6260.603
661.5960.580
671.5690.559
681.5440.533
691.5120.506
701.4870.488
711.4500.463
721.4190.444
731.3860.422
741.3570.404
751.3290.383
761.2970.366
771.2690.347
781.2420.331
791.2060.315
801.1610.295
811.1270.278
821.0960.261
831.0690.244
841.0390.229
851.0060.217
860.9740.202
870.9370.186
880.9080.174
890.8720.161
900.8190.146
910.7830.133
920.7490.119
930.7130.104
940.6670.088
950.6230.077
960.5780.065
970.5100.050
980.4500.038
990.3450.026


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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