Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Elizabeth Creek at Mt Surprise


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Product list for Elizabeth Creek at Mt Surprise



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Historical and exceedance probability for Elizabeth Creek at Mt Surprise ( Jan 2010 )

Historical Observations
Average (1968+) (GL)Last year (2009) (GL)Observed (2010) (GL)Minimum (1994) (GL)10 yr average (2000+) (GL)Maximum (1974) (GL)
Jan12.88249.98828.0310.0759.705171.329
Jan-Feb29.948115.99153.5620.16728.272274.347
Jan-Mar39.262125.09162.1780.48533.209383.537

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10112.325
2058.293
3037.124
4024.150
5016.522
6010.940
707.381
804.674
902.460

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1377.028
2279.172
3242.958
4214.584
5194.564
6168.356
7151.193
8136.161
9122.168
10112.325
11104.592
1296.507
1390.686
1485.117
1579.295
1674.891
1769.986
1865.246
1961.283
2058.293
2155.513
2252.541
2350.537
2447.723
2546.022
2644.595
2742.489
2840.872
2939.053
3037.124
3135.425
3233.760
3332.488
3431.271
3529.658
3628.414
3727.212
3826.126
3925.258
4024.150
4123.114
4222.367
4321.752
4420.928
4520.206
4619.420
4718.726
4817.847
4917.201
5016.522
5115.923
5215.338
5314.673
5414.056
5513.449
5612.737
5712.328
5811.925
5911.492
6010.940
6110.408
6210.030
639.685
649.273
658.960
668.648
678.362
687.998
697.636
707.381
717.041
726.776
736.473
746.209
755.924
765.676
775.413
785.176
794.955
804.674
814.418
824.181
833.922
843.711
853.533
863.301
873.070
882.891
892.683
902.460
912.261
922.036
931.808
941.547
951.372
961.181
970.924
980.724
990.515


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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