Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for McArthur River U/S of Baileys Grave


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Product list for McArthur River U/S of Baileys Grave



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Exceedance probability for McArthur River U/S of Baileys Grave ( May 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1021.47421.860
2016.89912.661
3013.7247.579
4010.9584.216
508.7152.408
606.6481.289
704.7810.706
802.9280.351
901.4410.131

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
133.01546.194
229.66938.436
327.76735.389
426.28932.880
525.30331.019
624.18128.423
723.38626.592
822.66924.875
921.95023.156
1021.47421.860
1120.78320.781
1220.22319.588
1319.85018.681
1419.38817.772
1518.91716.772
1618.52315.979
1718.08315.055
1817.69014.119
1917.27913.300
2016.89912.661
2116.51712.048
2216.14111.374
2315.80410.908
2415.45810.238
2515.1739.826
2614.8119.475
2714.5208.950
2814.2598.541
2913.9648.077
3013.7247.579
3113.4637.137
3213.1856.703
3312.8676.370
3412.5826.052
3512.2695.630
3612.0015.307
3711.7514.996
3811.5084.717
3911.2394.496
4010.9584.216
4110.7323.957
4210.4813.773
4310.1803.622
449.9983.423
459.7843.250
469.5463.065
479.3312.904
489.1252.703
498.9252.558
508.7152.408
518.4742.278
528.2452.153
538.0252.014
547.8331.887
557.6631.765
567.4361.625
577.1981.546
587.0041.470
596.8191.390
606.6481.289
616.4121.195
626.2161.129
636.0391.070
645.8261.002
655.6730.950
665.5000.900
675.3660.855
685.1830.799
694.9510.744
704.7810.706
714.6510.657
724.4780.620
734.3160.578
744.1300.542
753.9210.504
763.6910.472
773.4990.439
783.2840.410
793.1080.384
802.9280.351
812.7870.322
822.6360.296
832.4400.268
842.3030.246
852.1460.228
861.9880.206
871.8480.184
881.7030.168
891.5610.150
901.4410.131
911.2920.115
921.1400.098
930.9950.082
940.8450.064
950.7200.054
960.5940.043
970.4650.029
980.3310.020
990.1800.012


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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