Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for McArthur River U/S of Baileys Grave


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Product list for McArthur River U/S of Baileys Grave


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Probability distribution for McArthur River U/S of Baileys Grave(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile0.9891.544
Median2.9506.154
Mean10.35432.872
75% Quartile8.76924.721
Interquartile Range7.78023.178

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1126.530428.650
280.970297.049
359.734247.929
450.803210.310
541.906183.306
635.202150.471
731.391129.540
828.207111.682
925.45395.853
1023.17385.171
1121.01177.068
1219.52668.904
1317.85463.154
1416.49957.748
1515.38252.316
1614.44748.365
1713.39843.988
1812.74639.897
1912.05636.607
2011.34734.192
2110.75931.980
2210.19129.577
239.69428.117
249.18625.975
258.76924.736
268.37323.699
278.03222.148
287.67520.986
297.35519.761
306.99318.428
316.71017.302
326.39916.178
336.10715.357
345.77314.615
355.56913.577
365.32112.827
375.06612.090
384.90711.449
394.68110.930
404.49810.286
414.3069.690
424.1409.274
433.9328.924
443.7938.473
453.6428.083
463.4697.652
473.3337.295
483.1996.835
493.0606.496
502.9506.154
512.8495.854
522.7365.571
532.6325.238
542.5404.952
552.4334.650
562.3234.332
572.2364.145
582.1413.960
592.0613.770
601.9823.521
611.9103.297
621.8343.138
631.7442.992
641.6732.825
651.6112.697
661.5382.571
671.4572.457
681.4002.314
691.3452.174
701.2822.076
711.2201.949
721.1641.850
731.1091.739
741.0471.644
750.9891.543
760.9291.457
770.8831.367
780.8301.287
790.7741.213
800.7271.121
810.6831.039
820.6460.965
830.5980.885
840.5490.821
850.5010.769
860.4560.701
870.4160.636
880.3670.587
890.3350.530
900.2810.472
910.2410.421
920.2050.365
930.1670.311
940.1380.252
950.1060.215
960.0710.175
970.0240.126
980.0000.091
990.0000.057


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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