Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for McArthur River U/S of Baileys Grave


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Product list for McArthur River U/S of Baileys Grave


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Probability distribution for McArthur River U/S of Baileys Grave(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile0.1500.346
Median0.4281.943
Mean0.8654.906
75% Quartile1.0367.466
Interquartile Range0.8867.119

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
16.83127.326
24.98123.183
34.01821.556
43.53520.215
53.13519.219
62.77517.830
72.52416.849
82.31815.927
92.17815.001
102.05014.301
111.92113.717
121.83113.068
131.74212.572
141.66112.072
151.59211.519
161.52811.077
171.46810.558
181.40710.026
191.3449.555
201.2829.183
211.2258.821
221.1768.418
231.1218.136
241.0817.724
251.0367.466
261.0007.244
270.9596.906
280.9166.639
290.8866.329
300.8605.991
310.8305.684
320.8005.376
330.7665.135
340.7394.901
350.7154.585
360.6914.337
370.6674.096
380.6463.875
390.6203.698
400.6003.471
410.5813.259
420.5663.106
430.5482.980
440.5322.812
450.5122.666
460.4892.508
470.4692.370
480.4542.197
490.4402.072
500.4281.943
510.4141.830
520.4021.722
530.3901.602
540.3781.493
550.3681.387
560.3541.267
570.3421.200
580.3281.135
590.3161.067
600.3020.982
610.2900.903
620.2780.848
630.2690.800
640.2590.743
650.2490.701
660.2360.660
670.2260.623
680.2160.578
690.2050.534
700.1950.504
710.1850.465
720.1770.435
730.1670.403
740.1580.375
750.1500.346
760.1410.322
770.1300.297
780.1220.275
790.1130.255
800.1050.231
810.0980.210
820.0910.191
830.0820.171
840.0750.156
850.0670.143
860.0580.127
870.0510.112
880.0410.101
890.0320.089
900.0230.077
910.0170.067
920.0090.056
930.0000.045
940.0000.035
950.0000.028
960.0000.022
970.0000.014
980.0000.009
990.0000.005


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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