Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for McArthur River U/S of Baileys Grave


Return to catchment list
Product list for McArthur River U/S of Baileys Grave


Download forecast data
Probability distribution for McArthur River U/S of Baileys Grave(  )

Basic Statistics
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile18.698
Median49.721
Mean87.677
75% Quartile121.572
Interquartile Range102.873

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1451.402
2378.423
3349.880
4326.463
5309.159
6285.159
7268.346
8252.686
9237.127
10225.490
11215.875
12205.311
13197.338
14189.391
15180.711
16173.870
17165.945
18157.956
19151.003
20145.582
21140.399
22134.698
23130.756
24125.083
25121.574
26118.582
27114.082
28110.560
29106.524
30102.158
3198.237
3294.329
3391.296
3488.356
3584.399
3681.303
3778.275
3875.506
3973.273
4070.394
4167.671
4265.693
4364.053
4461.839
4559.887
4657.745
4755.842
4853.415
4951.620
5049.721
5148.035
5246.382
5344.493
5442.732
5540.988
5638.933
5737.749
5836.576
5935.314
6033.698
6132.132
6231.018
6329.998
6428.775
6527.844
6626.911
6726.058
6824.969
6923.879
7023.112
7122.087
7221.285
7320.366
7419.565
7518.697
7617.941
7717.137
7816.412
7915.734
8014.868
8114.079
8213.349
8312.545
8411.892
8511.339
8610.617
879.897
889.335
898.681
907.981
917.353
926.642
935.919
945.089
954.527
963.915
973.085
982.433
991.747


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence