Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for McArthur River U/S of Baileys Grave


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Product list for McArthur River U/S of Baileys Grave


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Probability distribution for McArthur River U/S of Baileys Grave(  )

Basic Statistics
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile41.742
Median115.768
Mean214.444
75% Quartile295.508
Interquartile Range253.766

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
11147.668
2958.943
3885.103
4824.516
5779.733
6717.614
7674.090
8633.552
9593.276
10563.161
11538.283
12510.961
13490.350
14469.815
15447.404
16429.753
17409.325
18388.752
19370.872
20356.950
21343.653
22329.045
23318.960
24304.465
25295.512
26287.889
27276.439
28267.489
29257.251
30246.199
31236.291
32226.434
33218.803
34211.414
35201.492
36193.748
37186.186
38179.288
39173.733
40166.584
41159.840
42154.949
43150.900
44145.443
45140.639
46135.379
47130.714
48124.776
49120.394
50115.768
51111.666
52107.654
53103.077
5498.817
5594.609
5689.663
5786.819
5884.003
5980.981
6077.120
6173.385
6270.732
6368.309
6465.407
6563.203
6660.998
6758.982
6856.416
6953.852
7052.051
7149.648
7247.772
7345.626
7443.757
7541.739
7639.983
7738.118
7836.441
7934.874
8032.880
8131.065
8229.391
8327.551
8426.059
8524.801
8623.159
8721.526
8820.256
8918.783
9017.210
9115.803
9214.215
9312.611
9410.777
959.542
968.202
976.403
985.002
993.545


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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