Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for McArthur River U/S of Baileys Grave


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Product list for McArthur River U/S of Baileys Grave


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Probability distribution for McArthur River U/S of Baileys Grave(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile2.6910.346
Median5.0761.943
Mean6.1624.906
75% Quartile8.6327.466
Interquartile Range5.9427.119

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
120.73927.326
218.50323.183
316.71721.556
415.62020.215
514.94919.219
614.03917.830
713.52316.849
813.11415.927
912.60615.001
1012.16514.301
1111.93313.717
1211.60013.068
1311.32512.572
1410.99612.072
1510.78011.519
1610.50211.077
1710.25410.558
1810.07910.026
199.8499.555
209.6089.183
219.4028.821
229.1828.418
239.0128.136
248.8167.724
258.6337.466
268.4487.244
278.2436.906
288.0376.639
297.8966.329
307.7355.991
317.5855.684
327.4275.376
337.2585.135
347.1374.901
357.0184.585
366.8874.337
376.7234.096
386.6083.875
396.4733.698
406.3213.471
416.1673.259
426.0523.106
435.9652.980
445.8302.812
455.7042.666
465.5642.508
475.4722.370
485.3572.197
495.1852.072
505.0761.943
514.9601.830
524.8681.722
534.7561.602
544.6541.493
554.5501.387
564.4461.267
574.3311.200
584.2381.135
594.1501.067
604.0570.982
613.9670.903
623.8580.848
633.7620.800
643.6530.743
653.5490.701
663.4590.660
673.3800.623
683.2840.578
693.1860.534
703.1010.504
713.0000.465
722.9350.435
732.8620.403
742.7720.375
752.6910.346
762.5840.322
772.4930.297
782.3830.275
792.3120.255
802.2290.231
812.1640.210
822.0880.191
832.0070.171
841.9060.156
851.8310.143
861.7310.127
871.6340.112
881.5370.101
891.4430.089
901.3370.077
911.2240.067
921.1280.056
931.0120.045
940.9150.035
950.7830.028
960.6860.022
970.5670.014
980.4360.009
990.2760.005


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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