Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for McArthur River U/S of Baileys Grave


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Product list for McArthur River U/S of Baileys Grave



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Probability distribution for McArthur River U/S of Baileys Grave ( Feb 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile77.42629.019
Median217.31598.479
Mean275.795209.207
75% Quartile422.485292.204
Interquartile Range345.059263.185

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1999.3151186.216
2881.478992.557
3822.474916.590
4775.885854.116
5743.269807.829
6712.691743.418
7683.878698.109
8655.146655.741
9634.769613.457
10612.369581.696
11598.322555.354
12584.499526.304
13565.063504.300
14549.413482.296
15538.205458.185
16521.963439.123
17509.912416.981
18498.038394.594
19485.473375.068
20475.496359.824
21464.004345.233
22453.170329.171
23442.152318.066
24431.691302.086
25422.900292.209
26413.599283.795
27402.352271.156
28393.223261.280
29385.131249.989
30373.872237.813
31361.975226.916
32353.093216.098
33344.114207.741
34336.489199.669
35327.324188.866
36319.854180.465
37311.215172.295
38302.931164.872
39293.003158.917
40284.927151.288
41279.439144.128
42270.376138.960
43261.721134.698
44254.422128.981
45247.454123.972
46240.209118.518
47235.014113.707
48230.223107.621
49223.489103.161
50217.31598.479
51210.01194.354
52204.73890.343
53197.85585.798
54190.43881.598
55183.52577.481
56177.63272.681
57170.74869.941
58164.65967.245
59159.57864.368
60154.44560.721
61148.66957.223
62143.75054.757
63138.36752.520
64132.01749.859
65126.10447.851
66120.76745.855
67116.42244.042
68111.71241.749
69107.23939.477
70100.70637.893
7196.50035.794
7291.92934.168
7387.15732.321
7482.24930.726
7577.41529.016
7672.78927.541
7768.94825.987
7864.34524.600
7959.94123.315
8055.78121.694
8151.90420.234
8248.21218.900
8345.51617.450
8442.34216.286
8538.79115.314
8635.04914.058
8732.02812.824
8829.34011.876
8926.30910.789
9023.1289.645
9120.0328.636
9217.4447.518
9314.4556.409
9411.4805.171
958.7944.358
966.5363.497
973.8182.378
981.5751.544
990.0000.719


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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