Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for McArthur River U/S of Baileys Grave


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Product list for McArthur River U/S of Baileys Grave



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Probability distribution for McArthur River U/S of Baileys Grave ( Mar 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile66.9128.499
Median187.45735.898
Mean241.854125.061
75% Quartile361.264144.976
Interquartile Range294.352136.477

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1910.565965.164
2796.837778.373
3736.766705.160
4682.419645.020
5648.997600.537
6626.078538.818
7603.703495.603
8577.623455.428
9554.821415.658
10537.105386.079
11515.188361.792
12499.402335.329
13486.777315.555
14475.992296.051
15463.927275.039
16452.347258.728
17442.068240.156
18430.198221.831
19415.984206.255
20405.525194.376
21396.565183.250
22387.627171.292
23379.973163.207
24371.555151.842
25361.277144.979
26354.713139.232
27346.670130.773
28339.877124.308
29331.995117.074
30323.353109.462
31317.566102.816
32309.66196.371
33302.09391.498
34294.67486.877
35288.12080.824
36280.96676.220
37272.73471.828
38265.10967.911
39257.49464.819
40251.07360.922
41243.70357.329
42237.19854.776
43230.68052.694
44225.14949.936
45218.98147.554
46212.28244.993
47206.68842.765
48199.77839.987
49194.19537.979
50187.45735.898
51180.76834.087
52174.76832.346
53170.07130.398
54162.84828.621
55157.03726.902
56151.35024.924
57147.24723.809
58142.80322.722
59137.58621.573
60131.52320.132
61127.43518.769
62123.47117.819
63118.70916.965
64113.91215.958
65109.76515.207
66105.96314.466
67101.82813.798
6896.99212.963
6992.14612.143
7087.80411.578
7183.27010.835
7279.43810.266
7374.7769.626
7470.5099.079
7566.8958.498
7663.6158.002
7760.4347.485
7856.8767.029
7953.8656.610
8050.8056.089
8147.5735.624
8244.9135.206
8342.3504.757
8439.1534.401
8536.1074.108
8632.2293.733
8729.9143.372
8827.2163.098
8925.1732.788
9023.0422.468
9120.4952.191
9218.2441.891
9315.5111.600
9412.7551.286
9510.5471.085
968.3150.879
976.1100.623
984.5480.441
992.6240.273


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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