Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for McArthur River U/S of Baileys Grave


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Product list for McArthur River U/S of Baileys Grave



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Probability distribution for McArthur River U/S of Baileys Grave ( Jul 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile6.8200.370
Median8.5421.324
Mean8.8362.938
75% Quartile10.4804.259
Interquartile Range3.6603.890

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
118.18715.264
215.81013.944
315.03613.036
414.43212.194
514.09011.416
613.63410.723
713.28510.080
813.0079.385
912.7458.935
1012.5148.528
1112.3298.090
1212.1517.740
1311.9417.387
1411.7817.013
1511.6036.712
1611.4566.358
1711.3076.005
1811.1945.702
1911.0955.459
2010.9675.234
2110.8804.989
2210.7964.803
2310.6794.553
2410.5844.389
2510.4804.260
2610.3774.076
2710.2833.897
2810.2003.726
2910.0843.534
309.9873.380
319.9093.183
329.8083.044
339.7452.921
349.6512.779
359.5942.632
369.5162.506
379.4452.401
389.3572.289
399.2902.188
409.2242.083
419.1561.995
429.0791.925
439.0041.851
448.9301.769
458.8681.687
468.7931.609
478.7201.527
488.6601.454
498.6011.387
508.5421.324
518.4691.274
528.3981.216
538.3321.142
548.2561.087
558.1921.018
568.1300.970
578.0670.928
587.9880.885
597.9230.845
607.8600.789
617.7990.750
627.7290.715
637.6580.679
647.6100.649
657.5460.620
667.4850.594
677.4120.566
687.3290.540
697.2530.507
707.1870.485
717.1150.458
727.0350.437
736.9540.414
746.8830.392
756.8190.369
766.7240.348
776.6290.327
786.5590.308
796.4860.292
806.3810.270
816.2850.251
826.1780.235
836.0880.217
846.0070.203
855.9220.191
865.8270.175
875.7360.159
885.5870.146
895.4550.132
905.2960.120
915.1610.107
925.0290.094
934.9210.080
944.7490.066
954.5530.057
964.2910.046
973.8860.034
983.6250.025
993.1380.016


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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