Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for McArthur River U/S of Baileys Grave


Return to catchment list
Product list for McArthur River U/S of Baileys Grave



Download forecast data
Probability distribution for McArthur River U/S of Baileys Grave ( Jan 2012 )

Basic Statistics
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile41.939
Median128.406
Mean232.055
75% Quartile336.298
Interquartile Range294.360

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
11159.005
2983.247
3914.276
4857.529
5815.463
6756.872
7715.603
8676.953
9638.300
10609.196
11585.001
12558.241
13537.909
14517.511
15495.071
16477.254
17456.459
18435.309
19416.742
20402.159
21388.119
22372.565
23361.743
24346.063
25336.303
26327.946
27315.311
28305.364
29293.911
30281.455
31270.208
32258.943
33250.170
34241.634
35230.112
36221.070
37212.203
38204.083
39197.524
40189.060
41181.051
42175.232
43170.407
44163.896
45158.158
46151.870
47146.289
48139.183
49133.940
50128.406
51123.503
52118.711
53113.251
54108.176
55103.173
5697.306
5793.939
5890.614
5987.051
6082.513
6178.138
6275.041
6372.221
6468.852
6566.302
6663.758
6761.440
6858.499
6955.572
7053.524
7150.802
7248.686
7346.274
7444.183
7541.935
7639.987
7737.929
7836.086
7934.373
8032.204
8130.241
8228.441
8326.476
8424.892
8523.564
8621.842
8720.142
8818.829
8917.318
9015.718
9114.300
9212.717
9311.136
949.355
958.175
966.912
975.253
983.995
992.727


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence