Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for McArthur River U/S of Baileys Grave


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Historical and exceedance probability for McArthur River U/S of Baileys Grave( Sep 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1966+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Minimum (1968) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (2001) (GL)
Sep0.7780.0000.0770.4190.870
Sep-Oct1.9210.0000.1220.7506.336
Sep-Nov5.8792.1270.1232.29513.313

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
109.554
206.509
304.693
403.253
502.268
601.495
700.990
800.610
900.307

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
117.569
215.008
314.003
413.176
512.563
611.709
711.107
810.543
99.979
109.554
119.200
128.808
138.510
148.211
157.881
167.619
177.313
187.001
196.726
206.509
216.300
226.069
235.907
245.672
255.525
265.399
275.208
285.058
294.884
304.693
314.521
324.348
334.212
344.080
353.901
363.759
373.620
383.492
393.388
403.253
413.125
423.032
432.954
442.849
452.756
462.654
472.563
482.446
492.360
502.268
512.187
522.107
532.016
541.931
551.846
561.747
571.690
581.633
591.572
601.495
611.419
621.366
631.317
641.259
651.214
661.170
671.129
681.078
691.026
700.990
710.942
720.905
730.862
740.825
750.785
760.750
770.713
780.680
790.649
800.610
810.574
820.541
830.505
840.476
850.452
860.420
870.389
880.365
890.337
900.307
910.280
920.250
930.220
940.187
950.164
960.140
970.107
980.083
990.057


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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