Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for McArthur River U/S of Baileys Grave


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Historical and exceedance probability for McArthur River U/S of Baileys Grave( Aug 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1966+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Minimum (2008) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (2001) (GL)
Aug0.8520.0300.0001.0881.263
Aug-Sep1.6300.0300.0001.5072.133
Aug-Oct2.7730.0300.0001.8387.599

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1010.8326.163
209.2844.449
308.2773.518
407.4582.753
506.7992.170
606.1871.607
705.5851.145
804.9150.673
903.9740.118

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
117.22211.706
214.93810.149
313.6939.197
412.8818.587
512.3878.001
611.9657.552
711.6257.122
811.2946.728
911.0496.403
1010.8326.163
1110.6145.946
1210.3855.736
1310.2115.566
1410.0695.363
159.9335.184
169.7595.021
179.6384.869
189.4954.706
199.3874.572
209.2844.449
219.1504.348
229.0304.225
238.9334.139
248.8364.025
258.7373.951
268.6283.888
278.5383.784
288.4543.696
298.3723.613
308.2773.518
318.1863.432
328.1103.339
338.0243.273
347.9293.202
357.8493.109
367.7703.037
377.7062.959
387.6282.888
397.5212.825
407.4582.753
417.3792.687
427.3052.630
437.2472.588
447.1852.530
457.1212.470
467.0442.410
476.9832.350
486.9222.281
496.8592.226
506.7992.170
516.7402.118
526.6682.067
536.5901.997
546.5411.943
556.4801.874
566.4321.811
576.3801.768
586.3101.723
596.2551.675
606.1871.607
616.1231.549
626.0831.505
636.0351.459
645.9731.408
655.9151.369
665.8551.327
675.7871.282
685.7271.237
695.6711.185
705.5851.145
715.5151.094
725.4581.052
735.3891.004
745.3270.959
755.2590.911
765.1910.866
775.1450.817
785.0800.773
795.0040.731
804.9150.673
814.8290.618
824.7420.568
834.6690.508
844.5710.460
854.4660.417
864.3690.358
874.2740.297
884.1830.247
894.0760.183
903.9740.118
913.8630.052
923.7640.000
933.6200.000
943.5000.000
953.3560.000
963.1260.000
972.9060.000
982.5910.000
992.1520.000


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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