Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for McArthur River U/S of Baileys Grave


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Product list for McArthur River U/S of Baileys Grave


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Historical and exceedance probability for McArthur River U/S of Baileys Grave(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1966+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (1986) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (2011) (GL)
Mar78.673NA11.2120.169123.513648.700
Mar-Apr103.577NA14.6280.204190.131996.614
Mar-May107.053NA15.0340.204196.8661021.485

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10157.970386.079
2083.928194.376
3048.444109.462
4029.23760.922
5018.58235.898
6011.52220.132
706.88711.578
803.3016.089
901.0552.468

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1441.508965.164
2356.367778.373
3311.788705.160
4273.773645.020
5242.242600.537
6217.588538.818
7200.958495.603
8186.553455.428
9172.266415.658
10157.970386.079
11147.664361.792
12138.000335.329
13129.106315.555
14121.249296.051
15114.052275.039
16105.828258.728
1798.264240.156
1893.046221.831
1989.332206.255
2083.928194.376
2179.721183.250
2274.690171.292
2371.089163.207
2467.491151.842
2563.337144.979
2659.838139.232
2756.213130.773
2853.879124.308
2950.791117.074
3048.444109.462
3146.247102.816
3243.50996.371
3341.19391.498
3438.92586.877
3537.43780.824
3635.84376.220
3733.95071.828
3832.15167.911
3930.86464.819
4029.23760.922
4127.89457.329
4226.71154.776
4325.54852.694
4424.13849.936
4523.11147.554
4622.11444.993
4721.31342.765
4820.12939.987
4919.38037.979
5018.58235.898
5117.70634.087
5216.84232.346
5316.14930.398
5415.31128.621
5514.62126.902
5613.89724.924
5713.19423.809
5812.64522.722
5912.09521.573
6011.52220.132
6111.00518.769
6210.54817.819
6310.01016.965
649.54715.958
659.09915.207
668.68214.466
678.23313.798
687.81112.963
697.30712.143
706.88711.578
716.42210.835
726.03810.266
735.6979.626
745.2069.079
754.8708.498
764.4948.002
774.1927.485
783.8477.029
793.5656.610
803.3016.089
813.1045.624
822.8355.206
832.5664.757
842.3534.401
852.1244.108
861.8753.733
871.6143.372
881.4133.098
891.2342.788
901.0552.468
910.8472.191
920.6681.891
930.5131.600
940.3131.286
950.1511.085
960.0110.879
970.0000.623
980.0000.441
990.0000.273


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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