Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for McArthur River U/S of Baileys Grave


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Product list for McArthur River U/S of Baileys Grave


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Historical and exceedance probability for McArthur River U/S of Baileys Grave(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1966+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (1999) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (2011) (GL)
May3.4761.3130.4060.0306.73424.871
May-Jun5.8966.1010.6930.03010.79242.457
May-Jul7.0398.1110.9130.03012.70049.494

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1013.69121.860
209.43512.661
306.6367.579
404.7114.216
503.2832.408
602.2441.289
701.5300.706
800.8570.351
900.3890.131

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
124.86446.194
221.36438.436
319.36735.389
417.99432.880
516.68331.019
615.98428.423
715.20426.592
814.62624.875
914.12123.156
1013.69121.860
1113.23820.781
1212.63119.588
1312.18018.681
1411.70517.772
1511.29716.772
1610.85015.979
1710.45615.055
1810.10514.119
199.76813.300
209.43512.661
219.11012.048
228.80611.374
238.50410.908
248.22710.238
257.9339.826
267.6159.475
277.3548.950
287.0898.541
296.8708.077
306.6367.579
316.4207.137
326.1886.703
335.9676.370
345.7626.052
355.5575.630
365.3895.307
375.2024.996
385.0254.717
394.8454.496
404.7114.216
414.5263.957
424.3493.773
434.1773.622
444.0463.423
453.9243.250
463.7923.065
473.6502.904
483.5372.703
493.4112.558
503.2832.408
513.1532.278
523.0252.153
532.9202.014
542.8091.887
552.7191.765
562.6391.625
572.5231.546
582.4171.470
592.3291.390
602.2441.289
612.1671.195
622.0921.129
631.9991.070
641.9111.002
651.8590.950
661.7880.900
671.7150.855
681.6520.799
691.5820.744
701.5300.706
711.4610.657
721.3950.620
731.3290.578
741.2540.542
751.1910.504
761.1190.472
771.0350.439
780.9630.410
790.9110.384
800.8570.351
810.8130.322
820.7650.296
830.7130.268
840.6670.246
850.6270.228
860.5730.206
870.5210.184
880.4740.168
890.4250.150
900.3890.131
910.3550.115
920.3110.098
930.2670.082
940.2170.064
950.1800.054
960.1370.043
970.1070.029
980.0720.020
990.0230.012


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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