Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for McArthur River U/S of Baileys Grave


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Product list for McArthur River U/S of Baileys Grave


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Historical and exceedance probability for McArthur River U/S of Baileys Grave(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1966+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2005) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1976) (GL)
Jul1.1432.0090.2200.0191.9083.949
Jul-Aug2.0253.0290.2510.0203.1146.772
Jul-Sep2.8383.8220.2510.0203.5858.771

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
100.9968.528
200.7575.234
300.6103.380
400.5092.083
500.4311.324
600.3560.789
700.2940.485
800.2280.270
900.1450.120

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
11.86215.264
21.59213.944
31.44613.036
41.32212.194
51.23811.416
61.18410.723
71.12310.080
81.0809.385
91.0368.935
100.9968.528
110.9628.090
120.9367.740
130.9037.387
140.8787.013
150.8556.712
160.8306.358
170.8116.005
180.7935.702
190.7745.459
200.7575.234
210.7414.989
220.7274.803
230.7054.553
240.6944.389
250.6794.260
260.6674.076
270.6513.897
280.6333.726
290.6213.534
300.6103.380
310.5983.183
320.5863.044
330.5752.921
340.5662.779
350.5552.632
360.5432.506
370.5342.401
380.5272.289
390.5202.188
400.5092.083
410.5011.995
420.4921.925
430.4831.851
440.4751.769
450.4691.687
460.4601.609
470.4531.527
480.4471.454
490.4381.387
500.4311.324
510.4211.274
520.4131.216
530.4061.142
540.3991.087
550.3911.018
560.3810.970
570.3750.928
580.3700.885
590.3630.845
600.3560.789
610.3490.750
620.3430.715
630.3360.679
640.3300.649
650.3240.620
660.3170.594
670.3120.566
680.3070.540
690.3010.507
700.2940.485
710.2880.458
720.2830.437
730.2760.414
740.2700.392
750.2620.369
760.2550.348
770.2480.327
780.2410.308
790.2350.292
800.2280.270
810.2220.251
820.2130.235
830.2050.217
840.1970.203
850.1900.191
860.1810.175
870.1740.159
880.1630.146
890.1530.132
900.1450.120
910.1370.107
920.1270.094
930.1170.080
940.1040.066
950.0870.057
960.0700.046
970.0550.034
980.0330.025
990.0000.016


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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