Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for McArthur River U/S of Baileys Grave


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Product list for McArthur River U/S of Baileys Grave


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Historical and exceedance probability for McArthur River U/S of Baileys Grave(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1966+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2008) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (2001) (GL)
Aug0.8821.0200.0300.0001.2061.263
Aug-Sep1.6951.8130.0300.0001.6762.133
Aug-Oct2.8982.4440.0300.0002.0497.599

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
100.9336.163
200.6524.449
300.5023.518
400.3892.753
500.2962.170
600.2161.607
700.1391.145
800.0530.673
900.0000.118

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
12.02811.706
21.64010.149
31.4579.197
41.3068.587
51.1948.001
61.1287.552
71.0747.122
81.0136.728
90.9716.403
100.9336.163
110.8895.946
120.8535.736
130.8265.566
140.7935.363
150.7695.184
160.7435.021
170.7154.869
180.6924.706
190.6694.572
200.6524.449
210.6364.348
220.6184.225
230.6034.139
240.5874.025
250.5723.951
260.5603.888
270.5443.784
280.5303.696
290.5163.613
300.5023.518
310.4883.432
320.4763.339
330.4653.273
340.4543.202
350.4403.109
360.4283.037
370.4182.959
380.4072.888
390.3992.825
400.3892.753
410.3802.687
420.3682.630
430.3572.588
440.3462.530
450.3372.470
460.3292.410
470.3222.350
480.3112.281
490.3032.226
500.2962.170
510.2882.118
520.2812.067
530.2711.997
540.2631.943
550.2541.874
560.2471.811
570.2391.768
580.2321.723
590.2231.675
600.2161.607
610.2091.549
620.2001.505
630.1931.459
640.1851.408
650.1761.369
660.1691.327
670.1611.282
680.1531.237
690.1471.185
700.1391.145
710.1321.094
720.1251.052
730.1171.004
740.1080.959
750.0980.911
760.0900.866
770.0800.817
780.0710.773
790.0640.731
800.0530.673
810.0410.618
820.0340.568
830.0230.508
840.0110.460
850.0000.417
860.0000.358
870.0000.297
880.0000.247
890.0000.183
900.0000.118
910.0000.052
920.0000.000
930.0000.000
940.0000.000
950.0000.000
960.0000.000
970.0000.000
980.0000.000
990.0000.000


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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