Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for McArthur River U/S of Baileys Grave


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Product list for McArthur River U/S of Baileys Grave


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Historical and exceedance probability for McArthur River U/S of Baileys Grave(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1966+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (1979) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1977) (GL)
Oct1.2030.6310.0000.1450.3721.235
Oct-Nov5.2451.3912.1270.1501.8203.581
Oct-Dec24.8704.0802.2290.26312.24034.620

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1025.926
2018.801
3015.037
4012.002
509.735
607.587
705.854
804.108
902.106

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
151.383
243.145
338.961
436.293
533.943
631.783
730.052
828.349
926.904
1025.926
1124.988
1224.135
1323.381
1422.582
1521.810
1621.197
1720.504
1819.863
1919.297
2018.801
2118.375
2217.883
2317.550
2417.077
2516.778
2616.516
2716.120
2815.766
2915.420
3015.037
3114.688
3214.328
3314.055
3413.779
3513.403
3613.121
3712.814
3812.535
3912.296
4012.002
4111.746
4211.539
4311.361
4411.133
4510.911
4610.663
4710.435
4810.164
499.950
509.735
519.533
529.339
539.073
548.862
558.599
568.357
578.194
588.021
597.841
607.587
617.363
627.195
637.027
646.835
656.686
666.526
676.363
686.191
695.996
705.854
715.660
725.504
735.322
745.158
754.977
764.814
774.637
784.473
794.315
804.108
813.912
823.725
833.512
843.333
853.176
862.964
872.744
882.565
892.349
902.106
911.876
921.601
931.302
940.929
950.655
960.331
970.000
980.000
990.000


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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