Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for McArthur River U/S of Baileys Grave


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Historical and exceedance probability for McArthur River U/S of Baileys Grave ( Apr 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1966+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (2005) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (2011) (GL)
Apr24.3923.41615.8540.31866.697347.915
Apr-May27.7933.82221.7170.41272.799372.786
Apr-Jun30.1544.10927.5500.45776.479390.371

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10241.64685.171
20161.73534.192
30117.01418.428
4082.60310.286
5055.1096.154
6038.3633.521
7024.9312.076
8014.6831.121
906.9700.472

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1527.074428.650
2432.161297.049
3381.940247.929
4340.673210.310
5318.099183.306
6302.781150.471
7286.690129.540
8267.138111.682
9252.01995.853
10241.64685.171
11232.39677.068
12222.51868.904
13213.19663.154
14204.37957.748
15196.41252.316
16188.79448.365
17182.00443.988
18174.55739.897
19168.22336.607
20161.73534.192
21156.85931.980
22150.52329.577
23146.00528.117
24141.16725.975
25135.98924.736
26131.77023.699
27127.94422.148
28124.10320.986
29120.39119.761
30117.01418.428
31113.45717.302
32110.25316.178
33106.36815.357
34103.10414.615
3598.91913.577
3694.74112.827
3791.05512.090
3888.54211.449
3985.77610.930
4082.60310.286
4178.7609.690
4275.6049.274
4372.5408.924
4469.6908.473
4567.4668.083
4664.3347.652
4762.4527.295
4859.8026.835
4957.4526.496
5055.1096.154
5153.2865.854
5251.7615.571
5349.8885.238
5448.2624.952
5546.3334.650
5645.0614.332
5743.2824.145
5841.5823.960
5939.6913.770
6038.3633.521
6137.0163.297
6235.2103.138
6333.5152.992
6432.1742.825
6531.0022.697
6629.5592.571
6728.2442.457
6827.1102.314
6926.0752.174
7024.9312.076
7123.7491.949
7222.5171.850
7321.4541.739
7420.4201.644
7519.4761.543
7618.3581.457
7717.3911.367
7816.4681.287
7915.5671.213
8014.6831.121
8113.7711.039
8212.9540.965
8312.0210.885
8411.3110.821
8510.4300.769
869.7750.701
879.1450.636
888.4750.587
897.7210.530
906.9700.472
916.2820.421
925.7460.365
934.8180.311
944.1910.252
953.5110.215
962.7920.175
972.1800.126
981.4500.091
990.8420.057


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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