Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Gregory River at Riversleigh


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Product list for Gregory River at Riversleigh


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Exceedance probability for Gregory River at Riversleigh( Aug 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1035.94357.055
2032.55445.561
3030.33139.286
4028.48634.172
5026.89530.232
6025.30126.473
7023.84823.324
8022.06120.136
9019.76616.381

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
145.799100.523
243.01083.960
341.19478.225
439.96373.796
539.04570.670
637.95366.527
737.43363.747
836.94661.241
936.49558.822
1035.94357.055
1135.48155.620
1235.17954.066
1334.77452.907
1434.45851.762
1534.16550.522
1633.77149.551
1733.37248.431
1833.09847.305
1932.80946.325
2032.55445.561
2132.33044.829
2232.05844.021
2331.84143.461
2431.65942.649
2531.44042.144
2631.21441.711
2730.97341.056
2830.77440.539
2930.55339.941
3030.33139.286
3130.13038.692
3229.91438.091
3329.73537.619
3429.56037.155
3529.33336.522
3629.15036.018
3728.96635.518
3828.80035.052
3928.66334.671
4028.48634.172
4128.32933.691
4228.13133.336
4327.95433.037
4427.81432.627
4527.68032.260
4627.53131.849
4727.38931.477
4827.25630.993
4927.08130.627
5026.89530.232
5126.75329.874
5226.58129.516
5326.40729.097
5426.26028.697
5526.07528.292
5625.93927.801
5725.75027.510
5825.60927.217
5925.46026.895
6025.30126.473
6125.17126.051
6224.98325.743
6324.84625.455
6424.69725.101
6524.54124.825
6624.37224.543
6724.26124.279
6824.11323.935
6924.00723.580
7023.84823.324
7123.64422.973
7223.44322.691
7323.29822.360
7423.16222.062
7522.99321.732
7622.78121.435
7722.61621.110
7822.40820.809
7922.21620.519
8022.06120.136
8121.87819.775
8221.70619.428
8321.48119.032
8421.32318.697
8521.08018.404
8620.84518.006
8720.57517.592
8820.30417.254
8920.08916.844
9019.76616.381
9119.50315.942
9219.23515.414
9318.86914.837
9418.41914.113
9518.02013.576
9617.55312.938
9717.02711.958
9816.26011.054
9915.1139.906


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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