Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Gregory River at Riversleigh


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Product list for Gregory River at Riversleigh


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Exceedance probability for Gregory River at Riversleigh(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10688.490
20403.533
30283.204
40203.010
50151.435
60110.124
7081.479
8057.326
9034.986

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
12489.124
21686.880
31436.504
41257.955
51134.813
6988.074
7894.575
8813.586
9739.859
10688.490
11648.330
12606.549
13576.135
14546.660
15516.027
16492.994
17466.623
18441.041
19419.693
20403.533
21388.318
22371.289
23360.664
24344.653
25335.137
26327.023
27314.601
28305.047
29294.740
30283.204
31273.187
32262.903
33255.194
34248.078
35237.863
36230.268
37222.624
38215.811
39210.172
40203.010
41196.208
42191.363
43187.203
44181.753
45176.923
46171.483
47166.867
48160.780
49156.186
50151.435
51147.188
52143.085
53138.131
54133.787
55129.060
56123.954
57120.872
58117.759
59114.513
60110.124
61106.069
62103.125
63100.360
6497.125
6594.593
6692.041
6789.692
6886.677
6983.634
7081.479
7178.577
7276.291
7373.650
7471.329
7568.796
7666.570
7764.182
7862.012
7959.964
8057.326
8154.893
8252.620
8350.086
8448.003
8546.225
8643.871
8741.493
8839.613
8937.397
9034.986
9132.783
9230.243
9327.605
9424.491
9522.322
9619.893
9716.474
9813.649
9910.500


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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