Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Gregory River at Riversleigh


Return to catchment list
Product list for Gregory River at Riversleigh



Download forecast data
Exceedance probability for Gregory River at Riversleigh ( Mar 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10316.768262.562
20219.722174.091
30167.495132.809
40133.671102.941
50109.12782.299
6088.22164.573
7069.11651.237
8051.95539.173
9034.59426.866

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1794.154738.719
2589.022531.720
3503.600467.265
4463.641420.075
5426.189388.149
6392.006347.597
7369.846321.525
8345.207298.808
9329.228277.602
10316.768262.562
11302.602250.623
12289.709237.981
13276.941228.748
14264.523219.789
15257.491210.267
16248.968202.942
17242.245194.639
18233.988186.451
19226.573179.461
20219.722174.091
21213.777169.016
22207.035163.494
23200.685159.709
24194.594154.304
25190.005150.983
26184.346148.163
27180.425143.938
28175.570140.642
29171.147136.876
30167.495132.809
31164.675129.158
32160.861125.518
33156.678122.691
34153.083119.944
35149.922116.237
36145.697113.325
37142.706110.464
38139.632107.835
39136.341105.704
40133.671102.941
41130.775100.309
42127.49298.384
43124.84196.779
44122.28494.598
45119.97692.661
46118.19490.518
47115.52088.597
48112.98286.122
49111.17984.274
50109.12782.299
51106.50380.526
52103.78378.772
53101.59776.744
5499.62174.829
5597.49372.909
5695.28570.612
5793.81069.271
5892.19467.929
5990.18266.468
6088.22164.573
6185.86962.706
6283.72161.358
6381.67760.110
6480.02758.592
6578.50057.421
6676.23856.235
6774.25255.136
6872.64153.714
6970.87852.268
7069.11651.237
7167.06549.837
7265.49048.726
7363.51347.433
7462.07646.287
7560.54045.027
7659.16143.910
7757.25842.702
7855.23341.595
7953.63840.542
8051.95539.173
8150.61137.897
8249.20336.692
8347.34235.335
8445.81534.207
8543.57933.235
8641.86631.935
8739.95130.604
8838.34429.539
8936.61928.269
9034.59426.866
9133.03725.564
9231.26124.037
9328.96122.419
9426.37220.460
9523.58519.061
9620.69817.455
9717.91415.113
9814.68513.090
999.85410.713


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence