Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Gregory River at Riversleigh


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Product list for Gregory River at Riversleigh



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Exceedance probability for Gregory River at Riversleigh ( Jun 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1035.65457.531
2031.40346.473
3028.65040.377
4026.26435.372
5024.24831.490
6022.33727.762
7020.48824.619
8018.56921.415
9015.67617.606

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
149.70298.471
245.34883.006
342.91877.616
441.46173.440
539.95470.485
638.73566.558
737.65963.916
836.98261.529
936.39559.220
1035.65457.531
1135.18456.157
1234.53854.667
1334.03553.555
1433.59852.455
1533.22351.262
1632.77850.326
1732.46149.246
1832.11948.159
1931.72047.212
2031.40346.473
2131.14045.764
2230.83444.981
2330.53644.437
2430.30243.650
2530.01043.159
2629.75942.738
2729.43042.101
2829.14841.597
2928.86541.015
3028.65040.377
3128.39539.797
3228.16239.210
3327.93238.749
3427.70238.296
3527.50237.676
3627.27737.183
3727.02236.692
3826.69036.236
3926.43835.862
4026.26435.372
4126.01734.900
4225.82734.550
4325.60034.256
4425.42833.853
4525.25733.491
4625.06333.086
4724.88432.720
4824.69032.242
4924.46431.881
5024.24831.490
5124.01231.136
5223.84430.782
5323.65330.368
5423.44329.972
5523.30629.570
5623.10629.082
5722.93528.794
5822.69628.503
5922.52528.183
6022.33727.762
6122.12427.342
6221.93027.036
6321.74026.749
6421.56026.396
6521.34526.120
6621.17525.839
6720.99325.575
6820.82125.230
6920.65624.875
7020.48824.619
7120.31624.268
7220.10123.985
7319.94523.652
7419.75323.354
7519.62323.021
7619.41922.723
7719.17422.396
7818.97922.093
7918.76921.800
8018.56921.415
8118.37421.050
8218.13820.699
8317.90420.298
8417.60619.959
8517.33819.663
8616.98419.259
8716.66418.838
8816.32718.495
8916.01418.078
9015.67617.606
9115.25417.158
9214.85616.618
9314.45116.027
9413.97815.284
9513.52014.732
9613.01214.074
9712.36813.060
9811.62212.121
9910.23610.924


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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