Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Gregory River at Riversleigh


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Product list for Gregory River at Riversleigh


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Probability distribution for Gregory River at Riversleigh( Jul 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile22.39922.371
Median24.77130.463
Mean24.98634.017
75% Quartile27.35941.561
Interquartile Range4.96019.190

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
135.48193.708
233.65579.185
332.38674.115
431.85070.183
531.40967.399
630.97263.697
730.61961.204
830.28958.950
930.01856.770
1029.75855.173
1129.53053.874
1229.36652.465
1329.19151.413
1429.01950.372
1528.86549.243
1628.70548.357
1728.53847.333
1828.39746.303
1928.22245.406
2028.08044.705
2127.93244.033
2227.73343.291
2327.60742.775
2427.48942.027
2527.36241.562
2627.22441.162
2727.12140.557
2827.02340.079
2926.92139.526
3026.80138.920
3126.69338.369
3226.58837.811
3326.47637.373
3426.36336.942
3526.24336.353
3626.15235.884
3726.04535.417
3825.91834.983
3925.83934.627
4025.74034.161
4125.61033.711
4225.51633.378
4325.41633.098
4425.32932.714
4525.24232.369
4625.15731.984
4725.06231.635
4824.97331.179
4924.86030.835
5024.77130.463
5124.67730.125
5224.58729.787
5324.49529.392
5424.39329.014
5524.28428.631
5624.19728.165
5724.10027.890
5824.00627.612
5923.90427.307
6023.80126.905
6123.68926.504
6223.61626.211
6323.53925.937
6423.47325.599
6523.38625.336
6623.28925.067
6723.20124.815
6823.09324.485
6923.00624.146
7022.91023.900
7122.80823.564
7222.70123.294
7322.60122.975
7422.49222.689
7522.39822.371
7622.26622.085
7722.16921.772
7822.06821.481
7921.96021.201
8021.82120.831
8121.66720.481
8221.56120.145
8321.44719.761
8421.31219.435
8521.17119.150
8621.04418.763
8720.88118.359
8820.70918.029
8920.48817.628
9020.29117.175
9120.11316.744
9219.94316.224
9319.74715.656
9419.45914.940
9519.14914.408
9618.77013.774
9718.36412.795
9817.91811.888
9917.07810.730


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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