Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Gregory River at Riversleigh


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Product list for Gregory River at Riversleigh



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Probability distribution for Gregory River at Riversleigh ( Feb 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile79.288
Median181.819
Mean332.598
75% Quartile412.578
Interquartile Range333.290

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
12089.484
21644.850
31475.777
41342.564
51243.418
61116.418
71029.952
8951.298
9876.525
10822.599
11779.382
12733.440
13699.376
14665.871
15630.548
16603.662
17572.546
18542.035
19516.340
20496.755
21478.215
22457.354
23444.282
24424.509
25412.716
26402.638
27387.170
28375.245
29362.354
30347.897
31335.319
32322.389
33312.684
34303.719
35290.838
36281.256
37271.608
38263.005
39255.884
40246.841
41238.251
42232.134
43226.884
44220.007
45213.914
46207.055
47201.239
48193.573
49187.793
50181.819
51176.482
52171.332
53165.119
54159.677
55153.761
56147.381
57143.535
58139.653
59135.609
60130.149
61125.114
62121.462
63118.037
64114.035
65110.906
66107.758
67104.863
68101.152
6997.414
7094.769
7191.215
7288.419
7385.195
7482.365
7579.283
7676.579
7773.684
7871.057
7968.583
8065.403
8162.476
8259.748
8356.715
8454.227
8552.108
8649.310
8746.491
8844.269
8941.658
9038.826
9136.249
9233.288
9330.229
9426.637
9524.152
9621.383
9717.520
9814.362
9910.887


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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