Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Gregory River at Riversleigh


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Historical and exceedance probability for Gregory River at Riversleigh( Sep 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1968+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Minimum (1969) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1985) (GL)
Sep10.85110.9135.26410.3905.741
Sep-Oct23.32121.4139.95620.04411.246
Sep-Nov45.27245.44914.43037.803165.184

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1062.22878.134
2050.35260.075
3043.05250.525
4037.56742.928
5033.00537.203
6028.85131.857
7025.34627.476
8021.12323.141
9016.59518.183

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1104.740151.421
292.140122.701
382.812112.967
476.770105.531
572.912100.328
669.73993.491
767.10188.943
865.55484.871
963.81680.967
1062.22878.134
1160.59475.842
1258.98073.372
1357.50771.539
1456.31269.734
1554.79667.786
1653.72966.266
1752.98264.519
1852.30762.769
1951.12661.254
2050.35260.075
2149.42858.949
2248.63057.710
2347.81956.852
2447.00355.614
2546.22154.845
2645.66554.188
2744.98653.194
2844.32952.412
2943.65551.510
3043.05250.525
3142.39149.633
3241.67448.733
3341.04048.028
3440.46447.338
3539.98346.397
3639.28845.650
3738.82244.909
3838.49244.223
3938.01543.662
4037.56742.928
4137.02942.223
4236.51141.703
4336.03541.267
4435.55940.669
4535.05740.135
4634.59539.538
4734.18439.000
4833.80838.300
4933.36537.772
5033.00537.203
5132.53736.689
5232.09336.175
5331.69735.577
5431.29135.006
5530.79334.429
5630.42233.732
5730.01633.321
5829.68232.906
5929.26832.452
6028.85131.857
6128.53231.265
6228.22530.833
6327.86330.431
6427.48129.937
6527.15029.553
6626.75029.161
6726.39028.795
6826.01228.318
6925.65927.828
7025.34627.476
7124.99526.993
7224.55426.607
7324.17926.153
7423.75025.747
7523.31125.297
7622.86524.894
7722.49224.453
7822.00124.046
7921.64823.655
8021.12323.141
8120.68722.656
8220.37622.193
8319.76021.665
8419.33421.220
8518.94720.832
8618.57720.307
8718.17019.762
8817.53619.320
8917.03018.784
9016.59518.183
9115.99217.614
9215.30216.934
9314.67416.196
9414.06215.276
9513.40614.600
9612.59513.801
9711.79512.587
9810.63211.483
998.64610.103


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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