Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Gregory River at Riversleigh


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Product list for Gregory River at Riversleigh


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Historical and exceedance probability for Gregory River at Riversleigh( Oct 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1968+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Minimum (1968) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (2000) (GL)
Oct12.47010.4995.5599.65510.560
Oct-Nov34.42134.53610.93827.41391.922
Oct-Dec104.89562.51417.42074.0111365.217

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10184.048
20126.216
3098.448
4077.919
5063.449
6050.783
7041.067
8032.096
9022.703

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1475.744
2351.770
3312.418
4283.328
5263.497
6238.112
7221.665
8207.245
9193.703
10184.048
11176.351
12168.168
13162.169
14156.329
15150.101
16145.294
17139.828
18134.418
19129.785
20126.216
21122.834
22119.145
23116.611
24112.983
25110.749
26108.849
27105.996
28103.766
29101.212
3098.448
3195.961
3293.476
3391.541
3489.658
3587.111
3685.106
3783.131
3881.314
3979.837
4077.919
4176.089
4274.747
4373.627
4472.103
4570.746
4669.242
4767.893
4866.150
4964.845
5063.449
5162.193
5260.948
5359.506
5458.142
5556.771
5655.127
5754.165
5853.201
5952.150
6050.783
6149.434
6248.457
6347.551
6446.448
6545.596
6644.730
6743.927
6842.886
6941.825
7041.067
7140.036
7239.216
7338.259
7437.410
7536.473
7635.642
7734.741
7833.913
7933.124
8032.096
8131.135
8230.225
8329.197
8428.340
8527.600
8626.607
8725.588
8824.769
8923.790
9022.703
9121.692
9220.499
9319.228
9417.680
9516.567
9615.281
9713.388
9811.733
999.761


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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